Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 25 pts · 15 played
WDLWD
3–3Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 32 pts · 15 played
DWWDW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 62). Absences weigh more on Borussia Dortmund. Eintracht Frankfurt had 20.2 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 21 and had to travel 178 km.
Away travel178 kmRest days20.2 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Eintracht Frankfurt29%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund45%
Eintracht Frankfurt28%
Draw27%
Borussia Dortmund45%
Eintracht Frankfurt29%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund46%
Eintracht Frankfurt23%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund53%
Eintracht Frankfurt29%
Draw27%
Borussia Dortmund44%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 85
Team strength
Eintracht FrankfurtBorussia Dortmund
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
54
AttackIn forecast
69
37
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtBorussia Dortmund
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
87%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
53%
12.33
ShotsContext
11.73
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.27
36%
On target shareContext
36%
8.27
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
67%
Box shareContext
72%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
1.82
OffsidesContext
1.90
11.07
Shots allowedContext
10.33
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.29
2.13
BlocksContext
2.79
2.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
51%
Save rateContext
78%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
504
PassesContext
495
423
Accurate passesContext
421
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.73
FoulsContext
11.00
9.73
Fouls sufferedContext
10.53
1.47
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.30
ShotsContext
11.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
34%
On target shareContext
37%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
68%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.50
BlocksContext
3.10
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
51%
Save rateContext
76%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
471
PassesContext
473
388
Accurate passesContext
400
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.80
FoulsContext
11.00
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel178 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 21Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
40Kauã Santos(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
13R. Kristensen
21N. Brown
16H. Larsson
6O. Højlund
20R. Doan
7A. Knauff
42C. Uzun
11Y. Ebnoutalib
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
25N. Süle
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
10J. Brandt
14M. Beier
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.29
Borussia Dortmund · Away
1.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-1
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 A | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 4–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 6–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| Union Berlin | L 3–4 H | W 3–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 22 of 42 · 1.57 per game | 31 of 42 · 2.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Eintracht Frankfurt wins1 draws6 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.38 – 2.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 17 Jan 2025Eintracht Frankfurt2–0Borussia Dortmund
- 24 Aug 2024Borussia Dortmund2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 17 Mar 2024Borussia Dortmund3–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 29 Oct 2023Eintracht Frankfurt3–3Borussia Dortmund
- 22 Apr 2023Borussia Dortmund4–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 29 Oct 2022Eintracht Frankfurt1–2Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.53 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 33% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 47% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 53% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.92 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.15 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 8.07 | 9.71 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 2/13 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.47 | 1.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 3.54 | 3.80 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 7/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 9.00 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.30 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.86
Red cards0.25league 0.21
Cards 5+49%league 41%
Fouls22.6league 21.2
Penalties0.27league 0.31
Home wins56%league 44%
Eintracht Frankfurt9 with this referee
Record3-4-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W17 Jan 25H · Borussia Dortmund2–00
- W2 Nov 24H · VfL Bochum7–21
- L27 Apr 24A · Bayern München1–23
- D25 Feb 24H · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
- W8 Oct 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–02
Borussia Dortmund9 with this referee
Record8-0-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against4 · 1
- W31 Aug 25H · Union Berlin3–00
- W30 Mar 25H · FSV Mainz 053–12
- L17 Jan 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–22
- W20 Jan 24A · 1.FC Köln4–02
- W13 May 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt15 games · scored 30 · conceded 30
2
6
0-15
6
2
16-30
8
4
31-45
7
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
9
76-90
Borussia Dortmund15 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
11
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
