Estoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Estoril were slight favourites.
Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Estoril. Estoril had 8 days of rest, Casa Pia 6.1 and had to travel.
Rest days8 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Estoril54%
Draw25%
Casa Pia21%
Estoril52%
Draw25%
Casa Pia23%
Estoril54%
Draw25%
Casa Pia21%
Estoril47%
Draw27%
Casa Pia27%
Estoril54%
Draw24%
Casa Pia22%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Estoril)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 10
Team strength
Estoril
Casa Pia
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
21
AttackIn forecast
13
29
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstorilCasa Pia
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
71%
Scored inContext
58%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.71
ShotsContext
8.13
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
37%
On target shareContext
34%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
4.83
66%
Box shareContext
58%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
1.55
OffsidesContext
2.46
11.67
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
2.90
BlocksContext
4.17
2.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.87
61%
Save rateContext
60%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
426
PassesContext
304
348
Accurate passesContext
228
82%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.29
FoulsContext
15.21
11.96
Fouls sufferedContext
13.88
2.54
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.86
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
8.50
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
44%
On target shareContext
34%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
71%
Box shareContext
63%
22%
ConversionContext
14%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.83
11.70
Shots allowedContext
15.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.63
BlocksContext
5.00
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
64%
Save rateContext
65%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
462
PassesContext
269
390
Accurate passesContext
193
85%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.50
FoulsContext
16.40
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estoril
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Casa Pia
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estoril |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Feb | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
2Ricard Sánchez
25F. Bacher
4Ferro
22Pedro Carvalho
10J. Holsgrove
5A. Tsoungui
6Jandro Orellana
9A. Marqués
99R. Guitane
14Y. Begraoui
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
18André Geraldes
3Kaly
4João Goulart
5A. Conté
42S. Pérez
8Rafael Brito
72Gaizka Larrazabal
13Oluwakorede Osundina
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estoril+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estoril · Home
1.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-2
- Scored
- 2.17
- Conceded
- 1.42
Casa Pia · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Estoril | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 3–1 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| AVS | L 0–3 AW 3–1 H | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 4–2 HL 2–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Estrela | W 5–0 AD 1–1 H | L 3–5 H |
| Benfica | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Alverca | W 4–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Moreirense | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Arouca | W 4–3 H | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 32 of 69 · 1.39 per game | 22 of 69 · 0.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Estoril wins3 draws1 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.86 – 1.00
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 3 Oct 2025Casa Pia2–2Estoril
- 29 Apr 2025Casa Pia1–3Estoril
- 15 Dec 2024Estoril0–2Casa Pia
- 8 Apr 2024Casa Pia0–0Estoril
- 10 Nov 2023Estoril4–0Casa Pia
- 21 May 2023Casa Pia2–2Estoril
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estoril | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 2.92 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 42% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Estoril | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 2.80 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estoril | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.45 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.82 | 5.82 | |
| Match total | 9.27 | 9.32 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 12/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 10/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.54 | 3.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 5.71 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 20/24 | 88% 21/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 14/24 | 75% 18/24 | |
| Estoril | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.55 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.10 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 4.84
Red cards0.20league 0.26
Cards 5+40%league 59%
Fouls25.0league 26.9
Penalties0.30league 0.45
Home wins60%league 41%
EstorilNo previous matches with this referee.
Casa Pia1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.6.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 May 25A · Famalicao1–26
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estoril24 games · scored 46 · conceded 42
4
9
0-15
7
5
16-30
11
7
31-45
10
5
46-60
8
8
61-75
6
8
76-90
Casa Pia23 games · scored 23 · conceded 39
4
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
3
8
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 24 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
