Estrela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Estrela33.2%fair odds 3.01
Draw28.1%fair odds 3.55
Moreirense38.6%fair odds 2.59
Expected goals1.20 – 1.32total 2.52
Likeliest score1–113.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Moreirense
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Estrela ↓ · Moreirense → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 13.4 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Estrela goals, columns Moreirense goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%7.46
- 0–19.9%10.11
- 1–09.0%11.14
- 0–08.7%11.51
- 1–28.4%11.90
- 2–17.7%13.03
- 0–27.0%14.34
- 2–05.8%17.19
- 2–25.1%19.76
- 1–33.7%27.07
Winning margin
4.7%
Estrela by 3+
fair 21.48
9.6%
Estrela by 2
fair 10.44
19.0%
Estrela by 1
fair 5.27
28.1%
Draw
fair 3.55
20.8%
Moreirense by 1
fair 4.80
11.5%
Moreirense by 2
fair 8.71
6.3%
Moreirense by 3+
fair 15.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
14%4
11%5+
Estrela goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Moreirense goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 33.2% | 33.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 28.1% | 27.2% | +1.0 pp |
| Moreirense win | 38.6% | 39.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.2% | 50.1% | -3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.0% | 55.0% | -3.0 pp |
| Expected goals Estrela | 1.20 | 1.28 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Moreirense | 1.32 | 1.40 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Estrela win33.2%3.01
- Draw28.1%3.55
- Moreirense win38.6%2.59
- Double chance Estrela or draw61.4%1.63
- Double chance Estrela or Moreirense71.9%1.39
- Double chance Moreirense or draw66.8%1.50
- Draw no bet Estrela46.2%2.16
- Draw no bet Moreirense53.8%1.86
Goals
- Over 0.591.3%1.10
- Over 1.572.4%1.38
- Over 2.546.2%2.16
- Over 3.524.8%4.04
- Over 4.511.2%8.92
- Under 1.527.6%3.63
- Under 2.553.8%1.86
- Under 3.575.2%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes52.0%1.92
- No48.0%2.08
- Yes and over 2.538.6%2.59
- Estrela win and yes15.2%6.59
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Moreirense win and yes17.4%5.76
Team goals
- Estrela over 0.570.0%1.43
- Estrela over 1.533.9%2.95
- Estrela over 2.512.2%8.23
- Moreirense over 0.573.3%1.36
- Moreirense over 1.538.0%2.63
- Moreirense over 2.514.7%6.79
- Estrela clean sheet26.7%3.74
- Moreirense clean sheet30.0%3.34
- Estrela win to nil18.0%5.54
- Moreirense win to nil21.3%4.70
Handicap
- Estrela −1.514.2%7.02
- Estrela −2.54.7%21.48
- Moreirense +1.585.8%1.17
- Moreirense +2.595.3%1.05
- Moreirense −1.517.8%5.62
- Estrela +1.582.2%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored128
Favourite won58.6%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.547
Over 2.5 called right61.7%
BTTS called right54.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 37.7% | 38.1% |
| 40–50% | 47 | 45.1% | 51.1% |
| 50–60% | 27 | 54.1% | 59.3% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 66.3% | 86.7% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 75.4% | 73.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 85.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 99 of 128 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5438 | 0.5226 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.6% | 45.8% |
| Favourite won | 59.6% | 59.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 99 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 128 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.