Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 18). Estrela had 5 days of rest, Moreirense 6.1 and had to travel 302 km.
Away travel302 kmRest days5 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Estrela33%
Draw28%
Moreirense39%
Estrela34%
Draw27%
Moreirense39%
Estrela33%
Draw28%
Moreirense39%
Estrela27%
Draw27%
Moreirense46%
Estrela34%
Draw27%
Moreirense39%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 14
Team strength
Estrela
Moreirense
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
24
AttackIn forecast
17
27
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaMoreirense
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
57%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.64
ShotsContext
9.14
3.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.54
31%
On target shareContext
36%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
48%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.43
Shots allowedContext
12.93
4.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
3.57
BlocksContext
3.23
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
68%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
347
PassesContext
402
279
Accurate passesContext
335
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.43
FoulsContext
14.64
15.57
Fouls sufferedContext
14.21
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.86
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.70
ShotsContext
9.30
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
33%
On target shareContext
40%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
50%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.60
BlocksContext
3.20
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
63%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
368
PassesContext
397
301
Accurate passesContext
329
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.40
FoulsContext
14.60
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km543 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel302 km623 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Dec | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 302 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 543 km | 623 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
17Jefferson Encada
19Paulo Moreira
6Oumar Ngom
11Jovane Cabral
63A. Sola
99A. Marcus
98Kikas
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
11Alan
8M. Stjepanović
20Benny
78Landerson
95Guilherme Schettine
2Diogo Travassos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.29
Moreirense · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 A |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Casa Pia | W 5–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Alverca | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Benfica | L 0–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 10 of 36 · 0.83 per game | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Estrela wins2 draws1 Moreirense wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 2 Mar 2025Moreirense1–1Estrela
- 28 Sep 2024Estrela2–1Moreirense
- 7 Apr 2024Moreirense2–2Estrela
- 11 Nov 2023Estrela0–1Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 3.21 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 71% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 21% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Estrela | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.18 | 4.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.15 | |
| Match total | 8.18 | 8.30 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 4/11 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 2/11 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 8% 1/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.64 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.07 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.71 | 5.00 | 5.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 12/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 79% 11/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Estrela | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 8.30 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.70 | 5.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.21league 5.22
Red cards0.29league 0.30
Cards 5+57%league 63%
Fouls28.0league 27.5
Penalties0.43league 0.46
Home wins29%league 38%
EstrelaNo previous matches with this referee.
MoreirenseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela13 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Moreirense14 games · scored 21 · conceded 24
5
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
8
76-90
Estrela9 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
4
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
