Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Everton
9th · 37 pts · 26 played
WDDWL
0–1Full time
Manchester United
5th · 45 pts · 26 played
WWWWD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 69). Everton had 13 days of rest, Manchester United 13 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days13 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Everton37%
Draw26%
Manchester United37%
Everton37%
Draw27%
Manchester United36%
Everton38%
Draw26%
Manchester United36%
Everton30%
Draw25%
Manchester United45%
Everton37%
Draw27%
Manchester United36%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 114
Team strength
EvertonManchester United
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
61
AttackIn forecast
72
66
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonManchester United
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.81
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
73%
Scored inContext
88%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.00
ShotsContext
16.04
3.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.69
30%
On target shareContext
36%
7.68
Shots in the boxContext
10.88
69%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.50
Shots allowedContext
10.92
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.62
4.46
BlocksContext
3.58
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.48
69%
Save rateContext
63%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
381
PassesContext
468
304
Accurate passesContext
388
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.69
FoulsContext
9.72
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
10.96
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.31
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
90%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.50
ShotsContext
15.50
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
31%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
67%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.20
OffsidesContext
3.43
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.40
BlocksContext
4.20
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
76%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
404
PassesContext
485
325
Accurate passesContext
412
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.02
11.70
FoulsContext
9.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester United
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel50 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Feb | 13Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
32J. Branthwaite
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
37J. Garner
42T. Iroegbunam
27I. Gueye
45H. Armstrong
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
11T. Barry
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
5J. Maguire
15L. Yoro
2Diogo Dalot
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester United+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.38
Manchester United · Away
1.38points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-3
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | D 4–4 H |
| Fulham | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 4–2 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Brentford | L 2–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Burnley | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–4 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 34 of 75 · 1.36 per game | 45 of 75 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Everton wins3 draws5 Manchester United wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.90
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 24 Nov 2025Manchester United0–1Everton
- 22 Feb 2025Everton2–2Manchester United
- 1 Dec 2024Manchester United4–0Everton
- 9 Mar 2024Manchester United2–0Everton
- 26 Nov 2023Everton0–3Manchester United
- 8 Apr 2023Manchester United2–0Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.27 | 3.23 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 58% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 73% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 12% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Everton | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.80 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.27 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.12 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 9.39 | 9.44 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 17/26 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 11/26 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 9/26 | 28% 7/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 1.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 3.81 | 3.58 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 13/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 11/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Everton | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 9.56 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.90 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.18league 3.73
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 21.4
Penalties0.28league 0.22
Home wins44%league 42%
Everton12 with this referee
Record4-6-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L20 Sep 25A · Liverpool1–23
- W10 May 25A · Fulham3–10
- D5 Apr 25H · Arsenal1–13
- W19 Jan 25H · Tottenham3–22
- D21 Sep 24A · Leicester1–12
Manchester United4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D1 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest2–21
- W26 Feb 25H · Ipswich3–25
- L7 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest2–30
- W11 Dec 21A · Norwich1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton26 games · scored 29 · conceded 30
3
3
0-15
5
8
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
10
4
76-90
Manchester United26 games · scored 47 · conceded 37
4
3
0-15
7
4
16-30
9
5
31-45
9
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
13
11
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
