FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 37). FC Augsburg had 2.9 days of rest, SC Freiburg 3.9 and had to travel 230 km.
Away travel230 kmRest days2.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Augsburg31%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg44%
FC Augsburg30%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg43%
FC Augsburg30%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg44%
FC Augsburg24%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg52%
FC Augsburg31%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg43%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 53
Team strength
FC Augsburg
SC Freiburg
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
72
AttackIn forecast
63
23
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgSC Freiburg
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
65%
Scored inContext
76%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
11.94
ShotsContext
12.71
3.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.24
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
61%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.18
Shots allowedContext
11.94
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.24
4.40
BlocksContext
3.93
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
56%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
399
PassesContext
426
319
Accurate passesContext
351
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.53
FoulsContext
9.53
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.41
2.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
40%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.70
ShotsContext
15.10
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
29%
On target shareContext
34%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
63%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.78
13.50
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
5.00
BlocksContext
4.83
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
50%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
415
PassesContext
455
334
Accurate passesContext
379
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.30
FoulsContext
10.10
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km895 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel230 km988 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Jan | 3.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 230 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 895 km | 988 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
31K. Schlotterbeck
14Y. Keitel
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
38M. Gregoritsch
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
9L. Höler
29P. Treu
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- SC Freiburg-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.22points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-4
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.78
SC Freiburg · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 2.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 A | D 0–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 H | L 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–4 H | W 4–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 H | L 2–6 A |
| Points | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game | 23 of 48 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 FC Augsburg wins1 draws6 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game0.89 – 2.11
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets11% · 44%
- 23 Aug 2025SC Freiburg1–3FC Augsburg
- 2 Mar 2025FC Augsburg0–0SC Freiburg
- 19 Oct 2024SC Freiburg3–1FC Augsburg
- 25 Feb 2024FC Augsburg2–1SC Freiburg
- 1 Oct 2023SC Freiburg2–0FC Augsburg
- 28 Jan 2023SC Freiburg3–1FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.94 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.29 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 65% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 65% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 24% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.47 | 3.77 | |
| Match total | 8.47 | 9.00 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 7/17 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 6/17 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.82 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.65 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.47 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 11/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 10.01 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.80 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.78
Red cards0.19league 0.19
Cards 5+49%league 39%
Fouls24.0league 21.1
Penalties0.23league 0.32
Home wins45%league 46%
FC Augsburg10 with this referee
Record4-4-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W12 Apr 25A · VfL Bochum2–12
- W15 Mar 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–01
- D10 Nov 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim0–02
- L1 Sep 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–44
- L19 Apr 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–33
SC Freiburg1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 Mar 22H · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg17 games · scored 18 · conceded 33
3
3
0-15
3
8
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
4
76-90
SC Freiburg17 games · scored 27 · conceded 29
5
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
10
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
7
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
