FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC St. Pauli
16th · 25 pts · 28 played
WDLLD
0–5Full time
Bayern München
1st · 73 pts · 28 played
WWDWW
FC St. Pauli3.1%fair odds 32.56
Draw6.6%fair odds 15.16
Bayern München90.3%fair odds 1.11
Expected goals0.80 – 4.04total 4.84
Likeliest score0–48.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC St. Pauli ↓ · Bayern München → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 9.9 |
| 1 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 7.9 |
| 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 3.1 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC St. Pauli goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–48.8%11.33
- 0–38.7%11.45
- 0–57.1%14.02
- 1–47.0%14.21
- 1–37.0%14.35
- 0–26.5%15.42
- 1–55.7%17.58
- 1–25.2%19.34
- 0–64.8%20.82
- 1–63.8%26.10
Winning margin
0.2%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 584.69
0.7%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 151.46
2.2%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 44.63
6.6%
Draw
fair 15.16
11.9%
Bayern München by 1
fair 8.40
16.9%
Bayern München by 2
fair 5.90
61.5%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 1.63
Goal distribution
Total goals
1%0
4%1
9%2
15%3
18%4
53%5+
FC St. Pauli goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
Bayern München goals
2%0
7%1
14%2
19%3
57%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli win | 3.1% | 3.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 6.6% | 8.4% | -1.8 pp |
| Bayern München win | 90.3% | 87.8% | +2.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 86.1% | 80.5% | +5.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 51.0% | +3.1 pp |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 0.80 | 0.74 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 4.04 | 3.58 | +0.46 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC St. Pauli win3.1%32.56
- Draw6.6%15.16
- Bayern München win90.3%1.11
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw9.7%10.34
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or Bayern München93.4%1.07
- Double chance Bayern München or draw96.9%1.03
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli3.3%30.41
- Draw no bet Bayern München96.7%1.03
Goals
- Over 0.599.1%1.01
- Over 1.595.5%1.05
- Over 2.586.1%1.16
- Over 3.571.1%1.41
- Over 4.552.9%1.89
- Under 1.54.5%22.22
- Under 2.513.9%7.18
- Under 3.528.9%3.46
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.551.4%1.94
- FC St. Pauli win and yes2.2%44.67
- Draw and yes5.7%17.65
- Bayern München win and yes46.2%2.16
Team goals
- FC St. Pauli over 0.555.0%1.82
- FC St. Pauli over 1.519.0%5.25
- FC St. Pauli over 2.54.7%21.24
- Bayern München over 0.598.2%1.02
- Bayern München over 1.591.1%1.10
- Bayern München over 2.576.7%1.30
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet1.8%56.73
- Bayern München clean sheet45.0%2.22
- FC St. Pauli win to nil0.8%120.02
- Bayern München win to nil44.1%2.27
Handicap
- FC St. Pauli −1.50.8%120.30
- FC St. Pauli −2.50.2%584.69
- Bayern München +1.599.2%1.01
- Bayern München +2.599.8%1.00
- Bayern München −1.578.4%1.28
- FC St. Pauli +1.521.6%4.64
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored257
Favourite won56.4%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.560
Over 2.5 called right60.7%
BTTS called right57.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.3% | 37.1% |
| 40–50% | 80 | 44.9% | 46.3% |
| 50–60% | 69 | 55.2% | 59.4% |
| 60–70% | 40 | 64.6% | 70.0% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 73.9% | 77.3% |
| 80%+ | 11 | 86.3% | 81.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 210 of 257 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5533 | 0.5518 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 57.6% | 56.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 210 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 6–3 VfL Wolfsburg72·17·10
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 257 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.