FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
16th · 25 pts · 28 played
WDLLD
0–5Full time
Bayern München
1st · 73 pts · 28 played
WWDWW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 29). Absences weigh more on FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli had 6.1 days of rest, Bayern München 7.1 and had to travel 612 km.
Away travel612 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC St. Pauli3%
Draw7%
Bayern München90%
FC St. Pauli6%
Draw13%
Bayern München82%
FC St. Pauli4%
Draw7%
Bayern München89%
FC St. Pauli2%
Draw4%
Bayern München94%
FC St. Pauli4%
Draw8%
Bayern München88%
Over 2.5 86%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–4
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 105
Team strength
FC St. PauliBayern München
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
95
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
20
AttackIn forecast
96
23
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliBayern München
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.57
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.96
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
2.69
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.88
61%
Scored inContext
100%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
9.93
ShotsContext
18.57
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.32
32%
On target shareContext
45%
5.74
Shots in the boxContext
12.68
55%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
19%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.39
Shots allowedContext
9.75
5.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.70
3.26
BlocksContext
3.29
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.05
71%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
424
PassesContext
681
333
Accurate passesContext
614
79%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.19
9.61
FoulsContext
9.11
9.61
Fouls sufferedContext
8.75
1.39
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
2.97
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.10
ShotsContext
19.90
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.50
30%
On target shareContext
43%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
12.90
55%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.40
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.78
BlocksContext
3.10
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
77%
Save rateContext
81%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
403
PassesContext
654
310
Accurate passesContext
591
77%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.23
8.30
FoulsContext
9.00
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km511 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel612 km554 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 612 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 511 km | 554 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
15Tomoya Ando
21L. Ritzka
16J. Fujita
20M. Rasmussen
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
10D. Sinani
27A. Hountondji
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
20T. Bischof
21H. Ito
3M. Kim
27K. Laimer
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
10J. Musiala
22R. Guerreiro
17M. Olise
11N. Jackson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.16 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Bayern München+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.54
Bayern München · Away
2.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-3-0
- Scored
- 3.14
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 AW 6–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | W 5–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 A | W 8–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 25 of 81 · 0.93 per game | 70 of 81 · 2.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins0 draws3 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 29 Nov 2025Bayern München3–1FC St. Pauli
- 29 Mar 2025Bayern München3–2FC St. Pauli
- 9 Nov 2024FC St. Pauli0–1Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 3.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 0.96 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.54 | 4.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 96% | 86% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 64% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 0% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| FC St. Pauli | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 4.20 | 4.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 86% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 6.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.46 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 9.50 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 18/27 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 13/27 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 8/27 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.46 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.28 | 3.57 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 11/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 6/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| FC St. Pauli | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.70 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 105 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 3.74
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+32%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 20.4
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins54%league 44%
FC St. Pauli2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Nov 25H · Union Berlin0–11
- L1 Mar 25H · Borussia Dortmund0–21
Bayern München9 with this referee
Record7-1-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.9
Pens for · against4 · 2
- W8 Feb 26H · 1899 Hoffenheim5–12
- W6 Dec 25A · VfB Stuttgart5–04
- W13 Sep 25H · Hamburger SV5–02
- W19 Oct 24H · VfB Stuttgart4–00
- W3 Feb 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli28 games · scored 25 · conceded 45
1
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
5
11
46-60
4
8
61-75
5
9
76-90
Bayern München28 games · scored 100 · conceded 27
6
4
0-15
17
4
16-30
19
4
31-45
11
3
46-60
17
3
61-75
30
9
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 33 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
5
31-45
7
1
46-60
8
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
