FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
16th · 24 pts · 26 played
LWWDL
1–2Full time
SC Freiburg
8th · 34 pts · 26 played
LWLDL
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli had 8.9 days of rest, SC Freiburg 2.9 and had to travel 636 km.
Away travel636 kmRest days8.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
FC St. Pauli31%
Draw28%
SC Freiburg41%
FC St. Pauli29%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg45%
FC St. Pauli32%
Draw29%
SC Freiburg39%
FC St. Pauli25%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg48%
FC St. Pauli31%
Draw29%
SC Freiburg40%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 69
Team strength
FC St. PauliSC Freiburg
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
20
AttackIn forecast
63
23
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliSC Freiburg
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
58%
Scored inContext
69%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
9.96
ShotsContext
12.50
3.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.31
32%
On target shareContext
35%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
8.87
56%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.45
OffsidesContext
2.36
11.08
Shots allowedContext
13.31
4.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
3.24
BlocksContext
4.43
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.96
69%
Save rateContext
65%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
426
PassesContext
404
335
Accurate passesContext
330
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.69
FoulsContext
9.12
9.81
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.42
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.80
ShotsContext
10.30
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
32%
On target shareContext
36%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
62%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.30
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.33
BlocksContext
4.90
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
70%
Save rateContext
70%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
401
PassesContext
355
310
Accurate passesContext
285
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.20
FoulsContext
9.40
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km713 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel636 km742 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Mar | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 636 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 713 km | 742 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
15Tomoya Ando
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
21L. Ritzka
7J. Irvine
20M. Rasmussen
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- SC Freiburg+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-4
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.50
SC Freiburg · Away
0.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 A | W 4–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 A | L 2–6 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 24 of 75 · 0.96 per game | 31 of 75 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 FC St. Pauli wins0 draws2 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 9 Nov 2025SC Freiburg2–1FC St. Pauli
- 15 Feb 2025FC St. Pauli0–1SC Freiburg
- 28 Sep 2024SC Freiburg0–3FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.08 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 62% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 31% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| FC St. Pauli | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.68 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 9.22 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 17/25 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 13/25 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 8/25 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.46 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 4.19 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 11/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 6/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| FC St. Pauli | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.70 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 3.73
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+32%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 20.5
Penalties0.28league 0.37
Home wins49%league 46%
FC St. Pauli2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L29 Mar 25A · Bayern München2–30
- L9 Feb 25A · RB Leipzig0–22
SC Freiburg5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Feb 26A · VfB Stuttgart0–12
- W16 Apr 23A · Werder Bremen2–13
- W6 Nov 22H · 1.FC Köln2–00
- L14 Jan 22A · Borussia Dortmund1–50
- L21 Nov 21H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli26 games · scored 23 · conceded 42
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
5
10
46-60
4
7
61-75
5
8
76-90
SC Freiburg26 games · scored 37 · conceded 43
7
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
7
9
31-45
7
15
46-60
5
3
61-75
9
9
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
0-15
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
