Eredivisie Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 22 · 13:30 Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
ADO Den Haag 17th · 6 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Rest days14 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Ajax—%
Draw—%
ADO Den Haag—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Amsterdam)

Forecast from 7 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Ajax and ADO Den Haag. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AjaxADO Den Haag
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 15
66 AttackIn forecast 15
55 DefenceIn forecast 18
63 Form indexContext 24
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ajax

Attack—
Defense risk—

ADO Den Haag

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AjaxADO Den Haag
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.22
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.22
2.06 xGVia Att/Def 0.93
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20
+0.94 Goals minus xGContext +0.29
100% Scored inContext 78%
22% Clean sheetsContext 0%
22.78 ShotsContext 11.22
8.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56
36% On target shareContext 32%
16.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.25
71% Box shareContext 58%
13% ConversionContext 11%
2.13 OffsidesContext 1.88
10.00 Shots allowedContext 17.33
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.78
2.67 BlocksContext 4.78
3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56
74% Save rateContext 67%
62% PossessionIn forecast 48%
581 PassesContext 411
516 Accurate passesContext 334
89% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.03 Team ratingContext 6.65
9.56 FoulsContext 14.00
9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 10.11
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.56
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
2.03 xGVia Att/Def 0.93
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20
+0.87 Goals minus xGContext +0.17
100% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
21.70 ShotsContext 11.60
7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
36% On target shareContext 31%
15.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.44
71% Box shareContext 58%
13% ConversionContext 10%
2.33 OffsidesContext 1.78
9.50 Shots allowedContext 16.30
3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.30
2.60 BlocksContext 4.60
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
74% Save rateContext 67%
62% PossessionIn forecast 50%
576 PassesContext 417
509 Accurate passesContext 338
88% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.05 Team ratingContext 6.68
9.80 FoulsContext 13.70
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ajax
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts
ADO Den Haag
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · PSV Eindhoven2–10.4 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Telstar2–20.9 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Cambuur1–11.4 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Twente0–20.4 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Fortuna Sittard2–31.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ajax ADO Den Haag
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Nov14.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways275 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one76.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Ajax Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt
ADO Den Haag Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs PSV Eindhoven (H) 2–1, 17 Oct
1K. Nikiéma(G)
18S. Sylla 4M. Waem 3P. Mulder 22L. Wilhelm 5J. Jensen-Abbew
11E. Rottier 25J. Kilo 8J. Žambůrek
9J. Bal 46Y. Eduardo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ajax Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
ADO Den Haag Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ajax · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-3-1
Scored
2.20
Conceded
1.80
ADO Den Haag · Away 0.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
0-2-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentAjaxADO Den Haag
Groningen W 5–2 A L 1–4 H
Fortuna Sittard W 5–1 A L 2–3 H
PSV Eindhoven L 1–3 H W 2–1 H
Telstar W 4–0 A D 2–2 A
Points9 of 12 · 2.25 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

AjaxADO Den HaagForecast
Scored per game 3.001.22
Conceded per game 1.332.22
Match goals 4.333.44
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 78%67%
Over 3.5 78%56%
Both teams scored 78%78%
Clean sheets 22%0%
Failed to score 0%22%
Games99
AjaxADO Den HaagForecast
Scored per game 2.701.22
Conceded per game 1.202.22
Match goals 3.903.44
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 70%67%
Over 3.5 70%56%
Both teams scored 70%78%
Clean sheets 30%0%
Failed to score 10%22%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AjaxADO Den HaagLeague
Corners
Corners won6.884.14
Corners conceded3.006.14
Match total9.8810.2810.39
Over 8.563% 5/857% 4/7
Over 9.550% 4/843% 3/7
Over 10.538% 3/843% 3/7
Cards
Cards2.001.67
Opponent cards1.781.44
Match total3.783.112.77
Over 3.556% 5/944% 4/9
Over 4.533% 3/911% 1/9
AjaxADO Den HaagLeague
Corners
Corners won6.884.25
Corners conceded3.005.63
Match total9.889.8810.39
Over 8.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 9.550% 4/838% 3/8
Over 10.538% 3/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.901.60
Opponent cards2.001.70
Match total3.903.302.77
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Ajax9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
ADO Den Haag9 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
5 31-45
4 46-60
1 8 61-75
3 2 76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
ADO Den Haag10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
1 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
5 31-45
4 46-60
1 9 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
NEC Nijmegen PSV Eindhoven Nov 2115:30 Utrecht Cambuur Nov 2117:45 Feyenoord Excelsior Nov 2117:45 Groningen Heerenveen Nov 2120:00 Telstar PEC Zwolle Nov 2120:00 Twente Willem II Nov 2211:15 Ajax ADO Den Haag Nov 2213:30 Sparta Rotterdam AZ Alkmaar Nov 2213:30 GO Ahead Eagles Fortuna Sittard Nov 2215:45