Eredivisie Gameweek 13 Sat, Nov 21 · 20:00 Euroborg, Groningen
Groningen 7th · 14 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel52 kmRest days13.2 · 13.4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Groningen—%
Draw—%
Heerenveen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Groningen)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Groningen and Heerenveen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GroningenHeerenveen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
30 Current StrengthIn forecast 31
41 AttackIn forecast 36
21 DefenceIn forecast 40
44 Form indexContext 39
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GroningenHeerenveen
2.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
2.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.22
1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
2.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
100% Scored inContext 67%
11% Clean sheetsContext 44%
14.78 ShotsContext 15.11
5.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
39% On target shareContext 40%
10.38 Shots in the boxContext 9.56
65% Box shareContext 66%
17% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.20
15.33 Shots allowedContext 14.56
5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
4.13 BlocksContext 4.44
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
60% Save rateContext 73%
51% PossessionIn forecast 53%
434 PassesContext 493
355 Accurate passesContext 421
82% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.92
8.89 FoulsContext 8.67
11.11 Fouls sufferedContext 10.78
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.27
2.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58
+0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.43
90% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.80 ShotsContext 14.90
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
38% On target shareContext 40%
9.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
62% Box shareContext 66%
16% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.20
15.00 Shots allowedContext 15.20
5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22
4.00 BlocksContext 4.70
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13
60% Save rateContext 69%
49% PossessionIn forecast 54%
425 PassesContext 498
345 Accurate passesContext 425
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.88
9.60 FoulsContext 8.40
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km277 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 8 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Ajax2–51.4 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Excelsior5–11.1 xPts
  • W18 SepH · PEC Zwolle3–02.0 xPts
  • D12 SepA · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.1 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Twente2–21.1 xPts
Heerenveen
Rest13.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel52 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
  • L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
  • L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Groningen Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Nov13.4Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km52 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways277 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one67.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ajax (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1E. Vaessen(G)
33H. Hateboer 5M. Rente 3T. Blokzijl 14J. Schreuders
24P. Clement 8T. de Jonge
11J. Ondrejka 26T. van Bergen 17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude
8N. Courtens 16M. Linday
7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Groningen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Heerenveen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
2-1-2
Scored
2.20
Conceded
2.20
Heerenveen · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentGroningenHeerenveen
Ajax L 2–5 H D 2–2 A
Excelsior W 5–1 A W 4–0 H
PEC Zwolle W 3–0 H L 0–2 H
Twente D 2–2 H W 1–0 H
PSV Eindhoven L 1–5 A L 0–2 A
Points7 of 15 · 1.40 per game7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Groningen wins0 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 18 Jan 2026Heerenveen0–2Groningen
  • 16 Aug 2025Groningen2–1Heerenveen
  • 25 Jan 2025Groningen1–0Heerenveen
  • 22 Sep 2024Heerenveen2–1Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GroningenHeerenveenForecast
Scored per game 2.441.67
Conceded per game 2.111.22
Match goals 4.562.89
Over 1.5 100%78%
Over 2.5 89%56%
Over 3.5 67%56%
Both teams scored 89%33%
Clean sheets 11%44%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games99
GroningenHeerenveenForecast
Scored per game 2.401.50
Conceded per game 2.001.10
Match goals 4.402.60
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 90%50%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 90%30%
Clean sheets 10%50%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GroningenHeerenveenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.895.11
Corners conceded4.564.89
Match total9.4510.0010.39
Over 8.578% 7/967% 6/9
Over 9.556% 5/944% 4/9
Over 10.522% 2/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.001.00
Opponent cards1.441.33
Match total2.442.332.77
Over 3.511% 1/911% 1/9
Over 4.511% 1/90% 0/9
GroningenHeerenveenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.895.20
Corners conceded4.565.20
Match total9.4510.4010.39
Over 8.578% 7/970% 7/10
Over 9.556% 5/950% 5/10
Over 10.522% 2/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.301.00
Opponent cards1.401.20
Match total2.702.202.77
Over 3.520% 2/1010% 1/10
Over 4.520% 2/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Groningen9 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 4 46-60
3 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
4 3 0-15
5 3 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 5 46-60
3 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
NEC Nijmegen PSV Eindhoven Nov 2115:30 Utrecht Cambuur Nov 2117:45 Feyenoord Excelsior Nov 2117:45 Groningen Heerenveen Nov 2120:00 Telstar PEC Zwolle Nov 2120:00 Twente Willem II Nov 2211:15 Ajax ADO Den Haag Nov 2213:30 Sparta Rotterdam AZ Alkmaar Nov 2213:30 GO Ahead Eagles Fortuna Sittard Nov 2215:45