FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Heidenheim – 13 Jan 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 17 Tue, Jan 13 · 19:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 18th · 9 pts · 16 played LLDDD

2–1Full time

1. FC Heidenheim 17th · 12 pts · 16 played WWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.

FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 28). FSV Mainz 05 had 3.2 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 3.2 and had to travel 199 km.

Away travel199 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

FSV Mainz 0557%

Draw23%

1. FC Heidenheim20%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.03

FSV Mainz 0556%

Draw24%

1. FC Heidenheim20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

FSV Mainz 0557%

Draw23%

1. FC Heidenheim20%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.03

FSV Mainz 0549%

Draw25%

1. FC Heidenheim26%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.15

FSV Mainz 0556%

Draw24%

1. FC Heidenheim20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Over 2.5 56% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySven Jablonski

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 94

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

1. FC Heidenheim

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

68 AttackIn forecast 48

56 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

1. FC Heidenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

1. FC Heidenheim

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.94

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

50% Scored inContext 63%

6% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.44 ShotsContext 11.00

2.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.73

26% On target shareContext 32%

8.47 Shots in the boxContext 7.47

73% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.13 Shots allowedContext 15.69

5.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.63

4.27 BlocksContext 3.94

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.31

65% Save rateContext 59%

46% PossessionIn forecast 43%

375 PassesContext 363

281 Accurate passesContext 285

75% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.19 FoulsContext 10.19

10.69 Fouls sufferedContext 10.19

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.63

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

50% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.00 ShotsContext 12.50

2.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

29% On target shareContext 30%

7.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

71% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.14

14.80 Shots allowedContext 15.60

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

4.80 BlocksContext 4.50

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

73% Save rateContext 50%

42% PossessionIn forecast 44%

361 PassesContext 384

268 Accurate passesContext 305

74% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.80 FoulsContext 10.00

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km910 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

1. FC Heidenheim

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel199 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	1. FC Heidenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Jan	3.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	199 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	910 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-5-2

33D. Batz(G)

31D. Kohr 16S. Bell 21D. da Costa

22N. Veratschnig 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 30S. Widmer

20P. Tietz 11A. Sieb

1. FC Heidenheim Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

41D. Ramaj(G)

19J. Föhrenbach 5B. Gimber 6P. Mainka 23O. Traoré

30N. Dorsch 16J. Niehues 3J. Schöppner

22A. Ibrahimović

29M. Kaufmann 18M. Pieringer

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Absences are shown before kick-off

1. FC Heidenheim Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
1. FC Heidenheim+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.38points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 0-3-5
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 1.38

1. FC Heidenheim · Away 0.43points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-6
Scored: 0.71
Conceded: 2.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	1. FC Heidenheim
Union Berlin	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
FC St. Pauli	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Bayern München	D 2–2 A	L 0–4 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach	L 0–1 H	L 0–3 H
SC Freiburg	L 0–4 A	W 2–1 H
1899 Hoffenheim	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Eintracht Frankfurt	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Werder Bremen	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
VfB Stuttgart	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
Bayer Leverkusen	L 3–4 H	L 0–6 A
Hamburger SV	L 0–4 A	L 1–2 A
Borussia Dortmund	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 H
FC Augsburg	W 4–1 A	W 2–1 H
RB Leipzig	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 A
VfL Wolfsburg	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 H
1.FC Köln	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 H
Points	9 of 48 · 0.56 per game	12 of 48 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 FSV Mainz 05 wins1 draws2 1. FC Heidenheim wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 50%

16 Feb 20251. FC Heidenheim0–2FSV Mainz 05
28 Sep 2024FSV Mainz 050–21. FC Heidenheim
5 May 20241. FC Heidenheim1–1FSV Mainz 05
16 Dec 2023FSV Mainz 050–11. FC Heidenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	1. FC Heidenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	0.94
Conceded per game	1.75	2.25
Match goals	2.69	3.19	2.91
Over 1.5	69%	94%
Over 2.5	44%	75%	56%
Over 3.5	38%	38%
Both teams scored	50%	63%	55%
Clean sheets	6%	0%
Failed to score	50%	38%
Games	16	16

	FSV Mainz 05	1. FC Heidenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.10
Conceded per game	1.80	2.50
Match goals	2.80	3.60	2.91
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	90%	56%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	1. FC Heidenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	5.14	5.07
Corners conceded	4.00	4.47
Match total	9.14	9.54	9.68
Over 8.5	50% 7/14	73% 11/15
Over 9.5	50% 7/14	47% 7/15
Over 10.5	36% 5/14	40% 6/15
Cards
Cards	2.44	1.69
Opponent cards	1.69	2.13
Match total	4.13	3.82	4.02
Over 3.5	63% 10/16	50% 8/16
Over 4.5	31% 5/16	44% 7/16

	FSV Mainz 05	1. FC Heidenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	5.56
Corners conceded	3.67	5.56
Match total	8.78	11.12	9.68
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.40
Opponent cards	1.70	1.40
Match total	3.80	2.80	4.02
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 94 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.90league 3.85

Red cards0.11league 0.20

Cards 5+41%league 41%

Fouls20.2league 21.1

Penalties0.18league 0.33

Home wins41%league 45%

FSV Mainz 057 with this referee

Record1-2-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L13 Sep 25H · RB Leipzig0–11
L12 Apr 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–22
D5 May 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–13
D6 Oct 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–21
L21 May 23H · VfB Stuttgart1–43

1. FC Heidenheim3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L22 Dec 24A · VfL Bochum0–27
W25 Aug 24A · FC St. Pauli2–03
D5 May 24H · FSV Mainz 051–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.