Bundesliga Gameweek 31 Sat, Apr 25 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 10th · 34 pts · 30 played
3–4Full time
Bayern München 1st · 79 pts · 30 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 had 5.8 days of rest, Bayern München 5.9 and had to travel 316 km.

Away travel316 kmRest days5.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
FSV Mainz 0510%
Draw14%
Bayern München76%
Expected goals 1.15 – 3.15
FSV Mainz 0511%
Draw19%
Bayern München70%
Expected goals 0.80 – 2.24
FSV Mainz 0510%
Draw14%
Bayern München76%
Expected goals 1.16 – 3.15
FSV Mainz 057%
Draw11%
Bayern München83%
Expected goals 1.03 – 3.53
FSV Mainz 0512%
Draw16%
Bayern München73%
Expected goals 1.07 – 2.77
Over 2.5 80% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–3
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
  • Cards per match 4.5
  • Penalties per match 0.27
  • Matches 59

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 95
55 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
68 AttackIn forecast 96
56 DefenceIn forecast 90
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.63
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.97
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 2.77
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.86
67% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 37%
10.93 ShotsContext 18.93
3.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.33
34% On target shareContext 44%
8.54 Shots in the boxContext 13.10
73% Box shareContext 70%
11% ConversionContext 19%
2.65 OffsidesContext 2.45
13.93 Shots allowedContext 9.60
4.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.79
4.10 BlocksContext 3.19
3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13
68% Save rateContext 70%
44% PossessionIn forecast 67%
359 PassesContext 689
270 Accurate passesContext 623
75% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.82 Team ratingContext 7.19
10.30 FoulsContext 8.93
10.03 Fouls sufferedContext 8.57
2.07 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.03
This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.70
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.34 xGVia Att/Def 3.24
1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.46
70% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.40 ShotsContext 21.80
4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.50
36% On target shareContext 39%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext 15.10
72% Box shareContext 69%
11% ConversionContext 17%
2.70 OffsidesContext 1.90
10.40 Shots allowedContext 11.50
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.10 BlocksContext 2.80
2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
71% Save rateContext 77%
43% PossessionIn forecast 68%
348 PassesContext 697
269 Accurate passesContext 634
77% Pass accuracyContext 91%
6.92 Team ratingContext 7.25
10.20 FoulsContext 9.00
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km373 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Bayern München
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel316 km1,224 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FSV Mainz 05 Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Apr5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km316 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways373 km1,224 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one87

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI
3-5-2
33D. Batz(G)
31D. Kohr 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene 10N. Amiri 6K. Sano 8P. Nebel 30S. Widmer
20P. Tietz 23S. Becker
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
Bayern München Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
40J. Urbig(G)
19A. Davies 21H. Ito 3M. Kim 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 39B. Ndiaye
14L. Díaz 8L. Goretzka 22R. Guerreiro
11N. Jackson
+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FSV Mainz 05 Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Bayern München+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 1.13points per game · 15 home games
W-D-L
4-5-6
Scored
1.13
Conceded
1.20
Bayern München · Away 2.60points per game · 15 away games
W-D-L
12-3-0
Scored
3.27
Conceded
0.93

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

OpponentFSV Mainz 05Bayern München
Borussia Mönchengladbach D 1–1 AL 0–1 H W 4–1 HW 3–0 A
SC Freiburg L 0–1 HL 0–4 A W 3–2 AW 6–2 H
1899 Hoffenheim W 2–1 AD 1–1 H W 5–1 HW 4–1 A
Eintracht Frankfurt W 2–1 HL 0–1 A W 3–2 HW 3–0 A
Werder Bremen W 2–0 AD 1–1 H W 3–0 AW 4–0 H
VfB Stuttgart D 2–2 HL 1–2 A W 4–2 HW 5–0 A
Bayer Leverkusen D 1–1 AL 3–4 H D 1–1 AW 3–0 H
Hamburger SV D 1–1 HL 0–4 A D 2–2 AW 5–0 H
Borussia Dortmund L 0–4 AL 0–2 H W 3–2 AW 2–1 H
FC Augsburg W 2–0 HW 4–1 A L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
RB Leipzig W 2–1 AL 0–1 H W 5–1 AW 6–0 H
VfL Wolfsburg W 3–1 HD 1–1 A W 8–1 H
1.FC Köln L 1–2 AL 0–1 H W 3–1 A
1. FC Heidenheim W 2–1 H W 4–0 A
Union Berlin D 2–2 A W 4–0 HD 2–2 A
FC St. Pauli D 0–0 H W 5–0 AW 3–1 H
Points33 of 87 · 1.14 per game78 of 87 · 2.69 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 FSV Mainz 05 wins1 draws5 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.67 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored89% Clean sheets0% · 11%
  • 14 Dec 2025Bayern München2–2FSV Mainz 05
  • 26 Apr 2025Bayern München3–0FSV Mainz 05
  • 14 Dec 2024FSV Mainz 052–1Bayern München
  • 9 Mar 2024Bayern München8–1FSV Mainz 05
  • 21 Oct 2023FSV Mainz 051–3Bayern München
  • 22 Apr 2023FSV Mainz 053–1Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FSV Mainz 05Bayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.203.63
Conceded per game 1.500.97
Match goals 2.704.60 4.30
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 50%97% 80%
Over 3.5 30%77%
Both teams scored 60%63% 66%
Clean sheets 10%37%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games3030
FSV Mainz 05Bayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.303.50
Conceded per game 1.201.10
Match goals 2.504.60 4.30
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 40%90% 80%
Over 3.5 20%80%
Both teams scored 60%70% 66%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FSV Mainz 05Bayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.046.14
Corners conceded4.373.43
Match total9.419.579.65
Over 8.559% 16/2757% 16/28
Over 9.548% 13/2754% 15/28
Over 10.533% 9/2736% 10/28
Cards
Cards2.231.77
Opponent cards2.001.67
Match total4.233.443.88
Over 3.563% 19/3043% 13/30
Over 4.540% 12/3033% 10/30
FSV Mainz 05Bayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.677.50
Corners conceded4.333.10
Match total9.0010.609.65
Over 8.567% 6/960% 6/10
Over 9.556% 5/950% 5/10
Over 10.533% 3/950% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.502.20
Opponent cards2.901.50
Match total4.403.703.88
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 59 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.29league 3.73
Red cards0.17league 0.17
Cards 5+51%league 38%
Fouls23.7league 20.3
Penalties0.27league 0.37
Home wins47%league 44%
FSV Mainz 056 with this referee
Record0-4-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • D4 May 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–11
  • L31 Jan 25A · Werder Bremen0–13
  • D25 Oct 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–13
  • D7 Feb 24H · Union Berlin1–12
  • D14 May 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–22
Bayern München2 with this referee
Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1
  • W28 Oct 23H · SV Darmstadt 988–02
  • W22 Aug 21H · 1.FC Köln3–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FSV Mainz 0530 games · scored 36 · conceded 45
5 10 0-15
4 6 16-30
7 6 31-45
4 6 46-60
7 2 61-75
9 15 76-90
Bayern München30 games · scored 109 · conceded 29
7 4 0-15
17 5 16-30
22 4 31-45
14 3 46-60
18 3 61-75
31 10 76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
4 1 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 37 · conceded 12
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
9 1 31-45
9 1 46-60
6 2 61-75
7 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
RB Leipzig Union Berlin 31 VfL Wolfsburg Borussia Mönchengladbach 00 FSV Mainz 05 Bayern München 34 FC Augsburg Eintracht Frankfurt 11 1. FC Heidenheim FC St. Pauli 20 1.FC Köln Bayer Leverkusen 12 Hamburger SV 1899 Hoffenheim 12 VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen 11 Borussia Dortmund SC Freiburg 40