FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
FSV Mainz 05
14th · 27 pts · 26 played
LDDDW
2–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 38 pts · 26 played
WLWDW
Our take
FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 had 7 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 8 and had to travel 32 km.
Away travel32 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
FSV Mainz 0546%
Draw28%
Eintracht Frankfurt26%
FSV Mainz 0542%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt31%
FSV Mainz 0546%
Draw28%
Eintracht Frankfurt26%
FSV Mainz 0539%
Draw29%
Eintracht Frankfurt32%
FSV Mainz 0546%
Draw29%
Eintracht Frankfurt25%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 104
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05Eintracht Frankfurt
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
68
AttackIn forecast
54
56
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05Eintracht Frankfurt
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.64
65%
Scored inContext
88%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.04
ShotsContext
11.27
3.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
32%
On target shareContext
39%
8.76
Shots in the boxContext
7.92
74%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.55
OffsidesContext
1.81
14.38
Shots allowedContext
11.81
4.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
4.12
BlocksContext
2.92
3.35
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
67%
Save rateContext
58%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
359
PassesContext
492
268
Accurate passesContext
413
75%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.54
FoulsContext
9.77
10.08
Fouls sufferedContext
9.73
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.00
ShotsContext
8.70
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
37%
On target shareContext
44%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
77%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.10
BlocksContext
4.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
76%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
359
PassesContext
510
273
Accurate passesContext
438
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.10
FoulsContext
8.80
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km692 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel32 km785 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 32 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 692 km | 785 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
31D. Kohr
4S. Posch
21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene
7J. Lee
6K. Sano
8P. Nebel
30S. Widmer
20P. Tietz
23S. Becker
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
21N. Brown
3A. Theate
5A. Amenda
34P. Collins
8F. Chaïbi
16H. Larsson
20R. Doan
19J. Bahoya
9J. Burkardt
25A. Kalimuendo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
1.08points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-5
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.23
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.15points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-4
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–6 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–4 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A |
| Points | 27 of 75 · 1.08 per game | 35 of 75 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 FSV Mainz 05 wins4 draws4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game0.89 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets0% · 44%
- 9 Nov 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–0FSV Mainz 05
- 4 May 2025FSV Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 21 Dec 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–3FSV Mainz 05
- 26 Jan 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–0FSV Mainz 05
- 27 Aug 2023FSV Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 13 May 2023Eintracht Frankfurt3–0FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 3.77 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 62% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 65% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 12% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.08 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.41 | 8.58 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 14/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 9/24 | 21% 5/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 1.85 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 4.12 | 3.93 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 9/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.34 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 104 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 3.74
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+33%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 20.5
Penalties0.32league 0.37
Home wins54%league 45%
FSV Mainz 058 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- D28 Feb 26A · Bayer Leverkusen1–12
- L24 Aug 25H · 1.FC Köln0–12
- W10 May 25A · VfL Bochum4–10
- W25 Jan 25H · VfB Stuttgart2–04
- W11 May 24H · Borussia Dortmund3–02
Eintracht Frankfurt5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.4
Pens for · against0 · 3
- D20 Dec 25A · Hamburger SV1–10
- W29 Sep 24A · Holstein Kiel4–23
- L17 Mar 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–32
- D18 Feb 24A · SC Freiburg3–30
- L14 Aug 21A · Borussia Dortmund2–50
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 0526 games · scored 31 · conceded 41
3
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
7
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
6
15
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt26 games · scored 49 · conceded 49
4
7
0-15
9
7
16-30
9
6
31-45
10
7
46-60
6
7
61-75
11
15
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
