Bundesliga Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 22 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 14th · 27 pts · 26 played
2–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt 7th · 38 pts · 26 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
FSV Mainz 0546.4%fair odds 2.15
Draw27.8%fair odds 3.59
Eintracht Frankfurt25.7%fair odds 3.89
Expected goals1.45 – 1.01total 2.46
Likeliest score1–113.2%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

FSV Mainz 05

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Eintracht Frankfurt

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

FSV Mainz 05 ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt →0123456+
09.28.04.41.50.40.10.0
111.713.26.32.10.50.10.0
29.09.14.61.50.40.10.0
34.34.42.20.70.20.00.0
41.61.60.80.30.10.00.0
50.50.50.20.10.00.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FSV Mainz 05 goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–113.2%7.58
  • 1–011.7%8.53
  • 0–09.2%10.83
  • 2–19.1%11.04
  • 2–09.0%11.16
  • 0–18.0%12.50
  • 1–26.3%15.79
  • 2–24.6%21.84
  • 0–24.4%22.83
  • 3–14.4%22.92

Winning margin

9.0% FSV Mainz 05 by 3+ fair 11.16
14.2% FSV Mainz 05 by 2 fair 7.04
23.3% FSV Mainz 05 by 1 fair 4.30
27.8% Draw fair 3.59
16.1% Eintracht Frankfurt by 1 fair 6.22
6.9% Eintracht Frankfurt by 2 fair 14.40
2.7% Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+ fair 36.87

Goal distribution

Total goals

9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+

FSV Mainz 05 goals

24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+

Eintracht Frankfurt goals

36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
FSV Mainz 05 win 46.4% 46.1% +0.3 pp
Draw 27.8% 28.8% -0.9 pp
Eintracht Frankfurt win 25.7% 25.1% +0.6 pp
Over 2.5 44.5% 40.9% +3.6 pp
Both teams score 49.3% 46.3% +3.0 pp
Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 1.45 1.37 +0.07
Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt 1.01 0.94 +0.07

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • FSV Mainz 05 win46.4%2.15
  • Draw27.8%3.59
  • Eintracht Frankfurt win25.7%3.89
  • Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw74.3%1.35
  • Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or Eintracht Frankfurt72.2%1.39
  • Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw53.6%1.87
  • Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0564.3%1.55
  • Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt35.7%2.80

Goals

  • Over 0.590.8%1.10
  • Over 1.571.0%1.41
  • Over 2.544.5%2.25
  • Over 3.523.3%4.29
  • Over 4.510.3%9.70
  • Under 1.529.0%3.45
  • Under 2.555.5%1.80
  • Under 3.576.7%1.30

Both teams to score

  • Yes49.3%2.03
  • No50.7%1.97
  • Yes and over 2.536.1%2.77
  • FSV Mainz 05 win and yes19.3%5.18
  • Draw and yes18.6%5.38
  • Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes11.4%8.76

Team goals

  • FSV Mainz 05 over 0.576.4%1.31
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 1.542.4%2.36
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 2.517.8%5.63
  • Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.563.6%1.57
  • Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.526.8%3.73
  • Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.58.2%12.15
  • FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet36.4%2.75
  • Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet23.6%4.24
  • FSV Mainz 05 win to nil27.1%3.68
  • Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil14.3%6.98

Handicap

  • FSV Mainz 05 −1.523.2%4.32
  • FSV Mainz 05 −2.59.0%11.16
  • Eintracht Frankfurt +1.576.8%1.30
  • Eintracht Frankfurt +2.591.0%1.10
  • Eintracht Frankfurt −1.59.7%10.35
  • FSV Mainz 05 +1.590.3%1.11

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored240 Favourite won56.7% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.558 Over 2.5 called right60.4% BTTS called right56.3%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3238.3%37.5%
40–50%7245.0%44.4%
50–60%6655.2%62.1%
60–70%3964.5%69.2%
70–80%2074.1%75.0%
80%+1186.3%81.8%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 193 of 240 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55050.5464
Avg chance given to result43.8%43.4%
Favourite won58.0%58.0%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 193 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 240 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.