FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg – 7 Feb 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 7 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 16th · 18 pts · 20 played DWLWW

2–0Full time

FC Augsburg 11th · 22 pts · 20 played LDDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.

FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 had 7 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7 and had to travel 261 km.

Away travel261 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

FSV Mainz 0557%

Draw23%

FC Augsburg20%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.12

FSV Mainz 0549%

Draw26%

FC Augsburg25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.10

FSV Mainz 0556%

Draw23%

FC Augsburg21%

Expected goals 1.94 – 1.10

FSV Mainz 0549%

Draw24%

FC Augsburg26%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.25

FSV Mainz 0556%

Draw23%

FC Augsburg20%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.08

Over 2.5 60% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

RefereePatrick Ittrich

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 41

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

FC Augsburg

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

68 AttackIn forecast 72

56 DefenceIn forecast 23

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Augsburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

FC Augsburg

1.15 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.65 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.85

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

60% Scored inContext 70%

5% Clean sheetsContext 15%

11.00 ShotsContext 12.10

3.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

31% On target shareContext 33%

8.79 Shots in the boxContext 7.26

73% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.53 OffsidesContext 2.37

14.85 Shots allowedContext 13.25

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.53

4.32 BlocksContext 4.44

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

65% Save rateContext 57%

45% PossessionIn forecast 45%

366 PassesContext 391

273 Accurate passesContext 312

74% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.77

10.80 FoulsContext 11.25

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.15

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.65

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.30 ShotsContext 12.70

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

42% On target shareContext 35%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

75% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 8%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.10

14.00 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

4.50 BlocksContext 5.00

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

74% Save rateContext 59%

41% PossessionIn forecast 44%

345 PassesContext 391

255 Accurate passesContext 315

74% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.00 FoulsContext 9.90

8.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km651 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Augsburg

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel261 km113 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	FC Augsburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	261 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	651 km	113 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

33D. Batz(G)

31D. Kohr 16S. Bell 4S. Posch

30S. Widmer 6K. Sano 7J. Lee 21D. da Costa

10N. Amiri 26S. Katompa Mvumpa

20P. Tietz

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Augsburg Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1F. Dahmen(G)

31K. Schlotterbeck 34Arthur Chaves 40N. Banks

19Robin Fellhauer 8E. Rexhbeçaj 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf

20A. Claude-Maurice 36M. Kömür

38M. Gregoritsch

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Augsburg Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05+0.7 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
FC Augsburg-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.90points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.30

FC Augsburg · Away 0.78points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-6
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	FC Augsburg
RB Leipzig	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	L 0–6 H
VfL Wolfsburg	W 3–1 HD 1–1 A	W 3–1 H
1.FC Köln	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
1. FC Heidenheim	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
Union Berlin	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
FC St. Pauli	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
Bayern München	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach	L 0–1 H	L 0–4 A
SC Freiburg	L 0–4 A	D 2–2 HW 3–1 A
1899 Hoffenheim	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 A
Eintracht Frankfurt	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Werder Bremen	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
VfB Stuttgart	L 1–2 A	L 2–3 A
Bayer Leverkusen	L 3–4 H	W 2–0 H
Hamburger SV	L 0–4 A	W 1–0 H
Borussia Dortmund	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 H
Points	15 of 57 · 0.79 per game	22 of 57 · 1.16 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

6 FSV Mainz 05 wins1 draws2 FC Augsburg wins

Goals per game2.11 – 1.11 Over 2.578% Both scored78% Clean sheets22% · 11%

20 Sep 2025FC Augsburg1–4FSV Mainz 05
8 Feb 2025FSV Mainz 050–0FC Augsburg
20 Sep 2024FC Augsburg2–3FSV Mainz 05
17 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 051–0FC Augsburg
23 Sep 2023FC Augsburg2–1FSV Mainz 05
11 Feb 2023FSV Mainz 053–1FC Augsburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	FC Augsburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.15	1.20
Conceded per game	1.65	1.85
Match goals	2.80	3.05	3.11
Over 1.5	75%	80%
Over 2.5	55%	65%	60%
Over 3.5	35%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	5%	15%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	20	20

	FSV Mainz 05	FC Augsburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.30
Match goals	2.80	2.30	3.11
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	FC Augsburg	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.25
Corners conceded	4.00	4.75
Match total	9.50	9.00	9.69
Over 8.5	56% 10/18	50% 10/20
Over 9.5	50% 9/18	45% 9/20
Over 10.5	39% 7/18	35% 7/20
Cards
Cards	2.55	2.70
Opponent cards	1.70	1.80
Match total	4.25	4.50	3.93
Over 3.5	65% 13/20	70% 14/20
Over 4.5	35% 7/20	60% 12/20

	FSV Mainz 05	FC Augsburg	League
Corners
Corners won	6.11	4.30
Corners conceded	3.78	5.30
Match total	9.89	9.60	9.69
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.80	1.70
Match total	3.80	3.70	3.93
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Patrick Ittrich 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 3.76

Red cards0.07league 0.18

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls25.3league 21.0

Penalties0.29league 0.35

Home wins49%league 44%

FSV Mainz 056 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 2

L9 Mar 24A · Bayern München1–81
D13 Jan 24H · VfL Wolfsburg1–13
D27 Oct 23A · VfL Bochum2–23
W28 Jan 23H · VfL Bochum5–20
W7 May 22A · Hertha BSC2–11

FC Augsburg8 with this referee

Record3-1-4 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

L10 May 24H · VfB Stuttgart0–14
D3 Feb 24A · VfL Bochum1–11
L13 May 23A · VfL Bochum2–32
W17 Feb 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–03
L9 Apr 22A · Bayern München0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.