FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV – 20 Feb 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 23 Fri, Feb 20 · 19:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 14th · 21 pts · 22 played LWWWL

1–1Full time

Hamburger SV 9th · 25 pts · 21 played DDDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.

FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 had 7 days of rest, Hamburger SV 6.2 and had to travel 414 km.

Away travel414 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

FSV Mainz 0560%

Draw21%

Hamburger SV19%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.20

FSV Mainz 0551%

Draw25%

Hamburger SV24%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07

FSV Mainz 0558%

Draw22%

Hamburger SV21%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.21

FSV Mainz 0552%

Draw23%

Hamburger SV25%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.34

FSV Mainz 0559%

Draw21%

Hamburger SV19%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.14

Over 2.5 66% Both score 63% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobin Braun

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.55
Matches 11

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 40

68 AttackIn forecast 37

56 DefenceIn forecast 43

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Hamburger SV

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

1.68 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.48

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

59% Scored inContext 62%

9% Clean sheetsContext 29%

10.82 ShotsContext 12.67

3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.76

33% On target shareContext 38%

8.62 Shots in the boxContext 8.55

74% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.39

14.77 Shots allowedContext 13.48

5.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.24 BlocksContext 3.45

3.41 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.37

66% Save rateContext 65%

45% PossessionIn forecast 47%

367 PassesContext 404

274 Accurate passesContext 332

75% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.55 FoulsContext 12.14

10.09 Fouls sufferedContext 12.43

2.27 Yellow cardsContext 2.19

0.18 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 22 and 21 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.00 ShotsContext 12.40

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

45% On target shareContext 40%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

76% Box shareContext 68%

15% ConversionContext 12%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.71

13.50 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

4.00 BlocksContext 3.00

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

72% Save rateContext 61%

41% PossessionIn forecast 46%

337 PassesContext 400

248 Accurate passesContext 324

73% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.85

8.30 FoulsContext 11.50

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km360 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Hamburger SV

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel414 km1,084 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Feb	6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	414 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	360 km	1,084 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-5-2

33D. Batz(G)

48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 31D. Kohr

2P. Mwene 10N. Amiri 6K. Sano 7J. Lee 21D. da Costa

20P. Tietz 26S. Katompa Mvumpa

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Hamburger SV Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)

24N. Capaldo 25J. Torunarigha 17W. Omari

28M. Muheim 21N. Remberg 20Fábio Vieira 18B. Jatta

27P. Otele 11R. Königsdörffer

9R. Glatzel

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Hamburger SV Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05+2.1 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Hamburger SV-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 1.09points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-5
Scored: 1.09
Conceded: 1.18

Hamburger SV · Away 0.60points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-6
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 15 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund	L 0–4 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 H
FC Augsburg	W 2–0 HW 4–1 A	L 0–1 A
RB Leipzig	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
VfL Wolfsburg	W 3–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
1.FC Köln	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	L 1–4 A
1. FC Heidenheim	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Union Berlin	D 2–2 A	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A
FC St. Pauli	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Bayern München	D 2–2 A	D 2–2 HL 0–5 A
Borussia Mönchengladbach	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
SC Freiburg	L 0–4 A	L 1–2 A
1899 Hoffenheim	D 1–1 H	L 1–4 A
Eintracht Frankfurt	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Werder Bremen	D 1–1 H	W 3–2 H
VfB Stuttgart	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Points	21 of 60 · 1.05 per game	22 of 60 · 1.10 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 FSV Mainz 05 wins0 draws1 Hamburger SV wins

Goals per game0.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

5 Oct 2025Hamburger SV4–0FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV	Forecast
Scored per game	1.14	1.14
Conceded per game	1.68	1.48
Match goals	2.82	2.62	3.41
Over 1.5	77%	71%
Over 2.5	55%	52%	66%
Over 3.5	36%	33%
Both teams scored	55%	52%	63%
Clean sheets	9%	29%
Failed to score	41%	38%
Games	22	21

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.50
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	2.80	2.90	3.41
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	66%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	63%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	3.95
Corners conceded	4.15	4.95
Match total	9.45	8.90	9.66
Over 8.5	60% 12/20	45% 9/20
Over 9.5	45% 9/20	35% 7/20
Over 10.5	35% 7/20	25% 5/20
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.48
Opponent cards	1.77	2.10
Match total	4.27	4.58	3.90
Over 3.5	68% 15/22	67% 14/21
Over 4.5	36% 8/22	52% 11/21

	FSV Mainz 05	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	4.44
Corners conceded	4.11	5.33
Match total	9.55	9.77	9.66
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.40
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.90	4.30	3.90
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robin Braun 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.45league 3.74

Red cards0.27league 0.18

Cards 5+45%league 38%

Fouls21.1league 20.7

Penalties0.55league 0.36

Home wins45%league 46%

FSV Mainz 051 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D14 Dec 25A · Bayern München2–22

Hamburger SV1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L22 Nov 25A · FC Augsburg0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.