Fulham vs Chelsea – 7 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 21 Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham 11th · 28 pts · 20 played WWWDD

2–1Full time

Chelsea 5th · 31 pts · 20 played WDLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 69). Fulham had 3.2 days of rest, Chelsea 3.1 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days3.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

Fulham33%

Draw26%

Chelsea41%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.56

Fulham33%

Draw27%

Chelsea40%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.42

Fulham33%

Draw26%

Chelsea41%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.56

Fulham26%

Draw25%

Chelsea49%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.75

Fulham33%

Draw27%

Chelsea40%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.42

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 114

Team strength

Fulham

Chelsea

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

66 AttackIn forecast 77

68 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Chelsea

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.65

1.45 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.74

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

85% Scored inContext 90%

25% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.75 ShotsContext 13.90

3.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

32% On target shareContext 34%

8.05 Shots in the boxContext 9.53

66% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 12%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.15

11.20 Shots allowedContext 10.70

3.85 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.74

3.50 BlocksContext 2.83

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

71% Save rateContext 71%

51% PossessionIn forecast 58%

468 PassesContext 518

391 Accurate passesContext 447

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.83 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.10 FoulsContext 11.75

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.35

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

90% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.20 ShotsContext 12.90

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

33% On target shareContext 30%

8.89 Shots in the boxContext 9.33

67% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.40

11.40 Shots allowedContext 12.00

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

4.00 BlocksContext 3.00

2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

73% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 56%

500 PassesContext 493

420 Accurate passesContext 422

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.94

8.20 FoulsContext 13.00

8.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan	3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	524 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	9.8	9.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1B. Leno(G)

15Jorge Cuenca 5J. Andersen 31I. Diop

33A. Robinson 10T. Cairney 16S. Berge 21T. Castagne

32E. Smith Rowe 8H. Wilson

7R. Jiménez

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 4T. Adarabioyo 23T. Chalobah 27M. Gusto

25M. Caicedo 17Andrey Santos

7Pedro Neto 8E. Fernández 10C. Palmer

9L. Delap

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Chelsea+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home 1.70points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-3
Scored: 1.70
Conceded: 1.20

Chelsea · Away 1.60points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 4-4-2
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.10

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Fulham	Chelsea
Liverpool	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 H
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 H
West Ham	W 1–0 A	W 5–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 1–0 H	W 3–0 A
Burnley	W 3–2 A	W 2–0 A
Manchester City	L 4–5 H	D 1–1 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Sunderland	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 H
Everton	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 H
Wolves	W 3–0 H	W 3–0 H
Newcastle	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Bournemouth	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Aston Villa	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 H
Brentford	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 A
Leeds	W 1–0 H	L 1–3 A
Manchester United	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Brighton	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 H
Points	28 of 57 · 1.47 per game	28 of 57 · 1.47 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Fulham wins1 draws6 Chelsea wins

Goals per game0.56 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets11% · 67%

30 Aug 2025Chelsea2–0Fulham
20 Apr 2025Fulham1–2Chelsea
26 Dec 2024Chelsea1–2Fulham
13 Jan 2024Chelsea1–0Fulham
2 Oct 2023Fulham0–2Chelsea
3 Feb 2023Chelsea0–0Fulham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.65
Conceded per game	1.45	1.10
Match goals	2.85	2.75	2.92
Over 1.5	75%	85%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	25%	40%
Failed to score	15%	10%
Games	20	20

	Fulham	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.50
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	3.10	2.60	2.92
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.65	5.95
Corners conceded	5.45	4.42
Match total	10.10	10.37	9.89
Over 8.5	75% 15/20	84% 16/19
Over 9.5	60% 12/20	79% 15/19
Over 10.5	40% 8/20	47% 9/19
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.45
Opponent cards	1.50	2.25
Match total	3.60	4.70	3.80
Over 3.5	55% 11/20	60% 12/20
Over 4.5	40% 8/20	55% 11/20

	Fulham	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.75
Corners conceded	5.90	5.00
Match total	10.10	9.75	9.89
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.40
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	3.90	4.30	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 114 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.10league 3.67

Red cards0.11league 0.10

Cards 5+44%league 37%

Fouls21.5league 21.4

Penalties0.15league 0.20

Home wins51%league 45%

Fulham10 with this referee

Record5-1-4 Cards · opp.2.9 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L25 Oct 25A · Newcastle1–22
W25 Feb 25A · Wolves2–13
W5 Dec 24H · Brighton3–12
L5 Oct 24A · Manchester City2–31
W21 Sep 24H · Newcastle3–16

Chelsea11 with this referee

Record6-3-2 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds2

W22 Nov 25A · Burnley2–03
L20 Sep 25A · Manchester United1–26
W15 Dec 24H · Brentford2–12
W28 Sep 24H · Brighton4–23
L8 Apr 23A · Wolves0–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.