Fulham vs Crystal Palace – 7 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 7 · 16:30 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham 15th · 17 pts · 14 played WLWWL

1–2Full time

Crystal Palace 6th · 23 pts · 14 played WDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 65). Fulham had 4.9 days of rest, Crystal Palace 3.9 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days4.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fulham37%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace37%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.42

Fulham36%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.35

Fulham37%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace37%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.40

Fulham30%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace45%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.59

Fulham36%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.36

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 69

Team strength

Fulham

Crystal Palace

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

66 AttackIn forecast 64

68 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Crystal Palace

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.79

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

79% Scored inContext 71%

21% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.71 ShotsContext 11.57

4.08 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.21

32% On target shareContext 36%

7.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.62

65% Box shareContext 70%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.15 OffsidesContext 2.08

10.93 Shots allowedContext 10.93

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.54

3.21 BlocksContext 3.08

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

70% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 43%

442 PassesContext 366

368 Accurate passesContext 282

83% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.02

12.50 FoulsContext 10.36

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.93

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.79

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.45

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.80 ShotsContext 12.50

4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

32% On target shareContext 28%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

63% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.30

11.00 Shots allowedContext 8.90

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.30 BlocksContext 2.71

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

65% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 45%

448 PassesContext 379

373 Accurate passesContext 289

83% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.10 FoulsContext 10.70

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km583 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Dec	3.9Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	583 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

21T. Castagne 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 2K. Tete

17A. Iwobi 16S. Berge

19S. Chukwueze 32E. Smith Rowe 8H. Wilson

7R. Jiménez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 18Daichi Kamada 20A. Wharton 17N. Clyne

10Yeremy Pino 9E. Nketiah

14J. Mateta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Crystal Palace+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home 1.86points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-2
Scored: 1.86
Conceded: 1.14

Crystal Palace · Away 1.86points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-2
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 0.57

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Fulham	Crystal Palace
Sunderland	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 H
Everton	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Wolves	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Bournemouth	L 1–3 A	D 3–3 H
Aston Villa	L 1–3 A	W 3–0 A
Brentford	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 H
Chelsea	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 A
Manchester United	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Brighton	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Points	11 of 30 · 1.10 per game	13 of 30 · 1.30 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Fulham wins4 draws2 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game1.13 – 0.88 Over 2.538% Both scored38% Clean sheets50% · 38%

22 Feb 2025Fulham0–2Crystal Palace
9 Nov 2024Crystal Palace0–2Fulham
27 Apr 2024Fulham1–1Crystal Palace
23 Sep 2023Crystal Palace0–0Fulham
20 May 2023Fulham2–2Crystal Palace
26 Dec 2022Crystal Palace0–3Fulham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	1.29
Conceded per game	1.57	0.79
Match goals	2.93	2.07	2.82
Over 1.5	79%	64%
Over 2.5	50%	43%	54%
Over 3.5	29%	7%
Both teams scored	57%	43%	58%
Clean sheets	21%	50%
Failed to score	21%	29%
Games	14	14

	Fulham	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.40
Conceded per game	1.80	1.00
Match goals	3.40	2.40	2.82
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.14	3.79
Corners conceded	5.07	5.21
Match total	10.21	9.00	10.01
Over 8.5	71% 10/14	43% 6/14
Over 9.5	64% 9/14	43% 6/14
Over 10.5	43% 6/14	43% 6/14
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.79
Opponent cards	1.64	2.21
Match total	3.50	4.00	3.81
Over 3.5	57% 8/14	71% 10/14
Over 4.5	43% 6/14	64% 9/14

	Fulham	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.40
Corners conceded	5.20	3.70
Match total	10.50	8.10	10.01
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.40
Opponent cards	1.50	2.00
Match total	3.40	3.40	3.81
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 69 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.74league 3.68

Red cards0.07league 0.12

Cards 5+33%league 40%

Fouls20.6league 22.0

Penalties0.25league 0.20

Home wins39%league 49%

Fulham4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D16 Aug 25A · Brighton1–13
W26 Dec 24A · Chelsea2–13
L16 Dec 23A · Newcastle0–33
W7 Oct 23H · Sheffield Utd3–11

Crystal Palace3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D19 Apr 25H · Bournemouth0–05
L18 Aug 24A · Brentford1–25
L11 Nov 23H · Everton2–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.