Fulham
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fulham38.0%fair odds 2.63
Draw23.8%fair odds 4.21
Newcastle38.2%fair odds 2.62
Expected goals1.68 – 1.69total 3.37
Likeliest score1–110.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Newcastle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fulham ↓ · Newcastle → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fulham goals, columns Newcastle goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%9.74
- 1–28.2%12.15
- 2–18.2%12.17
- 2–26.9%14.42
- 0–15.3%18.96
- 1–05.3%19.00
- 0–24.9%20.46
- 2–04.9%20.54
- 1–34.6%21.59
- 3–14.6%21.68
Winning margin
8.1%
Fulham by 3+
fair 12.30
11.5%
Fulham by 2
fair 8.72
18.4%
Fulham by 1
fair 5.42
23.8%
Draw
fair 4.21
18.5%
Newcastle by 1
fair 5.41
11.5%
Newcastle by 2
fair 8.68
8.2%
Newcastle by 3+
fair 12.21
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Fulham goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Newcastle goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 38.0% | 37.4% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 23.8% | 24.9% | -1.1 pp |
| Newcastle win | 38.2% | 37.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 60.6% | +4.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 66.9% | 63.1% | +3.8 pp |
| Expected goals Fulham | 1.68 | 1.56 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals Newcastle | 1.69 | 1.57 | +0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fulham win38.0%2.63
- Draw23.8%4.21
- Newcastle win38.2%2.62
- Double chance Fulham or draw61.8%1.62
- Double chance Fulham or Newcastle76.2%1.31
- Double chance Newcastle or draw62.0%1.61
- Draw no bet Fulham49.9%2.00
- Draw no bet Newcastle50.1%2.00
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.5%1.17
- Over 2.565.5%1.53
- Over 3.543.6%2.30
- Over 4.525.1%3.99
- Under 1.514.5%6.90
- Under 2.534.5%2.90
- Under 3.556.4%1.77
Both teams to score
- Yes66.9%1.49
- No33.1%3.02
- Yes and over 2.556.6%1.77
- Fulham win and yes23.5%4.26
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- Newcastle win and yes23.6%4.24
Team goals
- Fulham over 0.581.4%1.23
- Fulham over 1.550.2%1.99
- Fulham over 2.523.9%4.19
- Newcastle over 0.581.5%1.23
- Newcastle over 1.550.3%1.99
- Newcastle over 2.524.0%4.17
- Fulham clean sheet18.5%5.41
- Newcastle clean sheet18.6%5.39
- Fulham win to nil14.5%6.88
- Newcastle win to nil14.6%6.85
Handicap
- Fulham −1.519.6%5.10
- Fulham −2.58.1%12.30
- Newcastle +1.580.4%1.24
- Newcastle +2.591.9%1.09
- Newcastle −1.519.7%5.08
- Fulham +1.580.3%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored370
Favourite won49.7%
Avg chance given to result39.3%
1X2 Brier0.618
Over 2.5 called right55.9%
BTTS called right55.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 53 | 38.4% | 35.8% |
| 40–50% | 137 | 45.0% | 46.0% |
| 50–60% | 101 | 54.9% | 52.5% |
| 60–70% | 48 | 64.3% | 60.4% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 73.4% | 59.3% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 296 of 370 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6144 | 0.6041 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 40.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.3% | 51.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 286 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 370 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.