Fulham vs Newcastle – 24 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 38 Sun, May 24 · 16:00 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham 13th · 49 pts · 37 played DWLLD

2–0Full time

Newcastle 11th · 49 pts · 37 played LLWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Newcastle. Fulham had 7 days of rest, Newcastle 6.9 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fulham38%

Draw24%

Newcastle38%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.69

Fulham37%

Draw27%

Newcastle35%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.32

Fulham38%

Draw24%

Newcastle38%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.69

Fulham30%

Draw23%

Newcastle46%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.89

Fulham37%

Draw25%

Newcastle38%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.57

Over 2.5 65% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 142

Team strength

Fulham

Newcastle

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

66 AttackIn forecast 61

68 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Newcastle

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

70% Scored inContext 78%

22% Clean sheetsContext 22%

12.49 ShotsContext 13.11

3.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

29% On target shareContext 36%

8.58 Shots in the boxContext 8.41

67% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.97 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.92 Shots allowedContext 12.14

3.97 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

3.50 BlocksContext 3.85

2.91 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.06

70% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 53%

475 PassesContext 448

399 Accurate passesContext 372

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.84 FoulsContext 10.19

9.97 Fouls sufferedContext 12.27

1.97 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 37 and 37 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.84

-0.64 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

40% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.80 ShotsContext 12.00

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

25% On target shareContext 38%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

69% Box shareContext 65%

5% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.20 Shots allowedContext 14.40

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.56 BlocksContext 4.30

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

76% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 49%

478 PassesContext 402

400 Accurate passesContext 324

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.40 FoulsContext 10.70

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km363 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel398 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	363 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	92.2	91

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

33A. Robinson 3C. Bassey 31I. Diop 21T. Castagne

16S. Berge 17A. Iwobi

22Kevin 32E. Smith Rowe 14O. Bobb

9Rodrigo Muniz

Newcastle Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1N. Pope(G)

33D. Burn 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw

3L. Hall 41J. Ramsey 39Bruno Guimarães 28J. Willock 23J. Murphy

27N. Woltemade 18W. Osula

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Newcastle+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home 1.78points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 10-2-6
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 1.11

Newcastle · Away 0.94points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-9
Scored: 0.94
Conceded: 1.28

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Fulham	Newcastle
Wolves	D 1–1 AW 3–0 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Bournemouth	L 0–1 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A
Arsenal	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Aston Villa	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Brentford	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A
Liverpool	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H
Burnley	W 3–1 HW 3–2 A	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
West Ham	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A	W 3–1 HL 1–3 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Sunderland	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 AL 4–5 H	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H
Everton	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A
Manchester United	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Brighton	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A
Leeds	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Points	49 of 108 · 1.36 per game	46 of 108 · 1.28 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Fulham wins1 draws6 Newcastle wins

Goals per game0.89 – 1.78 Over 2.556% Both scored56% Clean sheets0% · 44%

25 Oct 2025Newcastle2–1Fulham
1 Feb 2025Newcastle1–2Fulham
21 Sep 2024Fulham3–1Newcastle
6 Apr 2024Fulham0–1Newcastle
16 Dec 2023Newcastle3–0Fulham
15 Jan 2023Newcastle1–0Fulham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	1.43
Conceded per game	1.38	1.43
Match goals	2.59	2.86	3.37
Over 1.5	70%	76%
Over 2.5	51%	65%	65%
Over 3.5	24%	35%
Both teams scored	54%	68%	67%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	30%	22%
Games	37	37

	Fulham	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.50
Conceded per game	1.00	1.40
Match goals	1.70	2.90	3.37
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	65%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	80%	67%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	60%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	6.05
Corners conceded	5.51	4.89
Match total	10.40	10.94	10.08
Over 8.5	78% 29/37	76% 28/37
Over 9.5	65% 24/37	59% 22/37
Over 10.5	46% 17/37	49% 18/37
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.78
Opponent cards	1.76	2.46
Match total	3.76	4.24	3.91
Over 3.5	57% 21/37	62% 23/37
Over 4.5	43% 16/37	38% 14/37

	Fulham	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	4.00
Corners conceded	5.20	4.80
Match total	10.80	8.80	10.08
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.40
Match total	3.70	4.30	3.91
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 142 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.79

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+42%league 38%

Fouls22.7league 21.6

Penalties0.25league 0.21

Home wins46%league 43%

Fulham14 with this referee

Record2-2-10 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 2

L30 Aug 25A · Chelsea0–22
L3 May 25A · Aston Villa0–14
L22 Feb 25H · Crystal Palace0–21
D29 Dec 24H · Bournemouth2–21
L23 Nov 24H · Wolves1–43

Newcastle15 with this referee

Record9-2-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W30 Dec 25A · Burnley3–11
L2 Nov 25A · West Ham1–32
D21 Sep 25A · Bournemouth0–01
W7 Apr 25A · Leicester3–00
W1 Sep 24H · Tottenham2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.