Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fulham were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fulham. Fulham had 7 days of rest, Tottenham 6.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fulham54%
Draw22%
Tottenham24%
Fulham45%
Draw27%
Tottenham28%
Fulham53%
Draw23%
Tottenham25%
Fulham46%
Draw23%
Tottenham31%
Fulham53%
Draw23%
Tottenham24%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 103
Team strength
Fulham
Tottenham
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
66
AttackIn forecast
56
68
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamTottenham
1.41
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.37
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
81%
Scored inContext
81%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.89
3.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
31%
On target shareContext
35%
8.15
Shots in the boxContext
7.65
66%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.96
OffsidesContext
1.91
11.81
Shots allowedContext
12.81
4.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.48
BlocksContext
3.58
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
67%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
475
PassesContext
417
399
Accurate passesContext
340
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.00
FoulsContext
11.37
9.19
Fouls sufferedContext
9.52
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.30
ShotsContext
14.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
65%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.56
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.30
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.20
BlocksContext
4.80
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
60%
Save rateContext
58%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
513
PassesContext
438
440
Accurate passesContext
363
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.50
FoulsContext
12.80
6.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tottenham
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 774 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
31I. Diop
2K. Tete
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
14O. Bobb
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
14A. Gray
37M. van de Ven
3R. Drăgușin
23Pedro Porro
7X. Simons
6João Palhinha
8Y. Bissouma
22C. Gallagher
19D. Solanke
39R. Kolo Muani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Tottenham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Tottenham-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
1.77points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-4
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.23
Tottenham · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-4
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 AL 4–5 H | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Everton | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Brighton | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Leeds | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Liverpool | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| West Ham | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Burnley | W 3–2 A | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Wolves | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 1–4 HL 1–4 A |
| Bournemouth | L 1–3 A | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 34 of 78 · 1.31 per game | 29 of 78 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Fulham wins2 draws4 Tottenham wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 29 Nov 2025Tottenham1–2Fulham
- 16 Mar 2025Fulham2–0Tottenham
- 1 Dec 2024Tottenham1–1Fulham
- 16 Mar 2024Fulham3–0Tottenham
- 23 Oct 2023Tottenham2–0Fulham
- 23 Jan 2023Fulham0–1Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.41 | 1.37 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 2.89 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 67% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 59% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 19% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.26 | 10.20 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 21/27 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 18/27 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 11/27 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.74 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.78 | 4.45 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 15/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 11/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Fulham | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.25 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.30 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.76
Red cards0.14league 0.12
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls22.0league 21.4
Penalties0.19league 0.21
Home wins48%league 42%
Fulham6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W15 Feb 25H · Nottingham Forest2–10
- D30 Jan 24H · Everton0–01
- W13 May 23A · Southampton2–00
- L25 Apr 23A · Aston Villa0–12
- W30 Aug 22H · Brighton2–12
Tottenham3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D2 Dec 25A · Newcastle2–23
- W4 Oct 25A · Leeds2–13
- L27 Apr 25A · Liverpool1–51
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham27 games · scored 38 · conceded 41
5
0-15
2
9
16-30
6
7
31-45
6
11
46-60
7
2
61-75
12
12
76-90
Tottenham27 games · scored 37 · conceded 41
3
6
0-15
4
2
16-30
8
13
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
10
11
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
9
5
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
