Estrela vs Benfica – 8 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 8 · 20:30 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 10th · 10 pts · 8 played DWDLL

VS— Compare

Benfica 2nd · 19 pts · 8 played WWWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica are clear favourites.

Benfica are the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Estrela have 8.2 days of rest, Benfica 3 and have to travel 8 km.

Away travel8 kmRest days8.2 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 3

Estrela11%

Draw17%

Benfica72%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.52

Estrela10%

Draw18%

Benfica72%

Expected goals 0.77 – 2.33

Estrela11%

Draw17%

Benfica72%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.52

Estrela7%

Draw14%

Benfica79%

Expected goals 0.79 – 2.83

Estrela11%

Draw17%

Benfica72%

Expected goals 0.91 – 2.55

Over 2.5 66% Both score 55% Likeliest score 0–2

EloLambda forecast, updated 22 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Benfica 10+ Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Estrela

Benfica

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

24 AttackIn forecast 81

27 DefenceIn forecast 81

24 Form indexContext 85

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack−35%

Defense risk+77%

Benfica

Attack+17%

Defense risk−11%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Estrela

Benfica

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 2.79

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.52

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

75% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.63 ShotsContext 19.50

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.88

33% On target shareContext 35%

8.63 Shots in the boxContext 14.63

68% Box shareContext 75%

14% ConversionContext 15%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.17

10.88 Shots allowedContext 7.63

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.83

2.13 BlocksContext 2.80

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.67

61% Save rateContext 59%

51% PossessionIn forecast 63%

412 PassesContext 561

345 Accurate passesContext 492

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.15

10.75 FoulsContext 12.13

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

70% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.10 ShotsContext 18.13

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88

34% On target shareContext 32%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 13.00

69% Box shareContext 71%

14% ConversionContext 15%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.17

11.50 Shots allowedContext 9.88

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

2.40 BlocksContext 2.56

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

63% Save rateContext 75%

48% PossessionIn forecast 60%

384 PassesContext 538

317 Accurate passesContext 472

83% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.16

11.00 FoulsContext 11.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.70

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela DWDLL

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km605 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L11 OctA · Arouca0–10.9 xPts
L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts

Benfica WWLWW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel8 km2,890 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W15 OctH · Celtic4–12.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Guimaraes2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · FC Porto1–31.3 xPts
W16 SepA · AC Milan2–01.7 xPts
W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 28
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct	3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	8 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	605 km	2,890 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	20	17.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Arouca (A) 0–1, 11 Oct

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Benfica Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Celtic (H) 4–1, 15 Oct

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes

25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

22J. Durán

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela No reported absences

Benfica No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.75

Benfica · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 3.75
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Benfica
Academico Viseu	L 0–2 H	D 2–2 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Estrela wins0 draws6 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%

25 Jan 2026Benfica4–0Estrela
16 Aug 2025Estrela0–1Benfica
2 Feb 2025Estrela2–3Benfica
24 Aug 2024Benfica1–0Estrela
29 Jan 2024Estrela1–4Benfica
19 Aug 2023Benfica2–0Estrela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	3.00
Conceded per game	1.88	0.88
Match goals	3.63	3.88	3.41
Over 1.5	88%	100%
Over 2.5	75%	88%	66%
Over 3.5	63%	63%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	8	8

	Estrela	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	2.70
Conceded per game	1.70	0.80
Match goals	3.30	3.50	3.41
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	66%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	6.50
Corners conceded	4.71	3.00
Match total	9.57	9.50	8.91
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.00
Opponent cards	2.50	3.13
Match total	4.88	5.13	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8

	Estrela	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	6.38
Corners conceded	5.56	4.25
Match total	9.78	10.63	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.40
Opponent cards	2.20	2.20
Match total	4.90	4.60	4.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.