Guimaraes vs FC Porto

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 8 · 18:00 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LDLDL

VS— Compare

FC Porto 1st · 24 pts · 8 played WWWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto are clear favourites.

FC Porto are the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Guimaraes. Guimaraes have 5.9 days of rest, FC Porto 3.9 and have to travel 42 km.

Away travel42 kmRest days5.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Guimaraes17%

Draw22%

FC Porto61%

Expected goals 0.97 – 2.00

Guimaraes15%

Draw21%

FC Porto64%

Expected goals 0.88 – 2.04

Guimaraes17%

Draw22%

FC Porto61%

Expected goals 0.97 – 2.00

Guimaraes13%

Draw19%

FC Porto68%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.25

Guimaraes17%

Draw22%

FC Porto61%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.06

Over 2.5 57% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 17 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Guimaraes

FC Porto

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

28 AttackIn forecast 74

39 DefenceIn forecast 79

13 Form indexContext 84

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack−33%

Defense risk+57%

FC Porto

Attack+5%

Defense risk−5%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Guimaraes

FC Porto

0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 2.24

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.78

-0.85 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

50% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 50%

17.25 ShotsContext 16.25

4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

23% On target shareContext 40%

10.63 Shots in the boxContext 11.25

62% Box shareContext 71%

4% ConversionContext 15%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.71

9.13 Shots allowedContext 10.25

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

3.00 BlocksContext 2.75

2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13

62% Save rateContext 77%

54% PossessionIn forecast 55%

449 PassesContext 426

370 Accurate passesContext 363

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.69 Team ratingContext 7.05

15.63 FoulsContext 13.88

9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.63 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.89 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

40% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.60 ShotsContext 14.60

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33

23% On target shareContext 39%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

62% Box shareContext 72%

3% ConversionContext 15%

1.67 OffsidesContext 3.25

8.90 Shots allowedContext 11.90

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.63 BlocksContext 2.80

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

62% Save rateContext 74%

57% PossessionIn forecast 52%

448 PassesContext 416

370 Accurate passesContext 351

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.96

14.70 FoulsContext 13.60

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes LDLDL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km57 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected

L11 OctA · Benfica0–20.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Moreirense1–11.9 xPts
L12 SepA · Academico Viseu1–21.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Casa Pia0–02.1 xPts
L31 AugA · SC Braga0–10.9 xPts

FC Porto WWWWL

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel42 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

L14 OctA · Real Betis2–31.4 xPts
W10 OctA · Maritimo2–12.4 xPts
W20 SepH · Benfica3–11.4 xPts
W12 SepA · Casa Pia4–12.3 xPts
W4 SepH · Moreirense2–12.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 2 Nov	3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	42 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	57 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	20.1	16.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Benfica (A) 0–2, 11 Oct

48O. Zych(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 21T. Borevković 23T. Strata

8Gonçalo Nogueira 44L. Doucet

7O. Camara 20Samu 17M. Nogueira

9A. Jakupovic

FC Porto Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Real Betis (A) 2–3, 14 Oct

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 13P. Rosario 52Martim Fernandes

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 19André Silva 17Borja Sainz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes No reported absences

FC Porto No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

FC Porto · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 2.75
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Guimaraes	FC Porto
Benfica	L 0–2 A	W 3–1 H
Moreirense	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Academico Viseu	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 A
Casa Pia	D 0–0 H	W 4–1 A
Arouca	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 H
Points	2 of 15 · 0.40 per game	15 of 15 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Guimaraes wins1 draws6 FC Porto wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.88 Over 2.563% Both scored38% Clean sheets0% · 63%

18 Jan 2026Guimaraes0–1FC Porto
11 Aug 2025FC Porto3–0Guimaraes
24 Feb 2025FC Porto1–1Guimaraes
21 Sep 2024Guimaraes0–3FC Porto
7 Apr 2024FC Porto1–2Guimaraes
11 Nov 2023Guimaraes1–2FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	0.63	2.50
Conceded per game	1.25	0.50
Match goals	1.88	3.00	2.97
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	63%	57%
Over 3.5	13%	25%
Both teams scored	38%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	25%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	8	8

	Guimaraes	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	2.20
Conceded per game	1.30	0.90
Match goals	1.80	3.10	2.97
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	20%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	60%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	6.75
Corners conceded	4.00	3.63
Match total	9.75	10.38	8.91
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	2.75	1.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.13
Match total	5.25	3.13	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8

	Guimaraes	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	5.70
Corners conceded	3.80	3.90
Match total	9.60	9.60	8.91
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.20
Opponent cards	2.50	2.40
Match total	5.20	3.60	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.