Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 23). Guimaraes had 5.2 days of rest, Nacional 12.2 and had to travel 1,237 km.
Away travel1,237 kmRest days5.2 · 12.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Guimaraes56%
Draw25%
Nacional19%
Guimaraes56%
Draw24%
Nacional20%
Guimaraes56%
Draw25%
Nacional19%
Guimaraes48%
Draw27%
Nacional25%
Guimaraes56%
Draw24%
Nacional20%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAndre Filipe Domingues Narciso
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 5
Team strength
Guimaraes
Nacional
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
28
AttackIn forecast
15
39
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesNacional
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
56%
Scored inContext
73%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.63
ShotsContext
11.40
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
28%
On target shareContext
34%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.46
53%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.63
Shots allowedContext
14.93
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.27
3.31
BlocksContext
4.67
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
74%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
360
PassesContext
299
295
Accurate passesContext
223
82%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.63
FoulsContext
14.07
15.38
Fouls sufferedContext
11.53
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
50%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.10
ShotsContext
12.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
27%
On target shareContext
35%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
51%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.50
BlocksContext
4.60
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
76%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
357
PassesContext
330
295
Accurate passesContext
252
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.70
FoulsContext
12.00
15.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km481 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest12.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,237 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Dec | 12.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,237 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 481 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
3M. Nóbrega
2Miguel Maga
30Gonçalo Nogueira
16Beni
48N. Saviolo
20Samu
18Telmo Arcanjo
7Nélson Oliveira
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
8Miguel Baeza
6Matheus Dias
11Paulinho Bóia
28Liziero
10Daniel Júnior
9J. Ramírez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Nacional · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | L 1–4 H |
| Rio Ave | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| AVS | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Alverca | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Estrela | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Arouca | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Estoril | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 19 of 45 · 1.27 per game | 16 of 45 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Guimaraes wins1 draws0 Nacional wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 May 2025Nacional1–2Guimaraes
- 23 Dec 2024Guimaraes2–2Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.31 | 2.53 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 27% | |
| Games | 16 | 15 |
| Guimaraes | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.31 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 6.27 | |
| Match total | 7.87 | 10.34 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 8/16 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 5/16 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 3/16 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.56 | 2.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.31 | 2.93 | |
| Match total | 5.87 | 5.86 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 11/16 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Guimaraes | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.50 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 5.70 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso Portugal · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.40league 5.14
Red cards0.20league 0.30
Cards 5+40%league 62%
Fouls30.2league 27.2
Penalties0.40league 0.44
Home wins80%league 36%
Guimaraes1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W8 Nov 25A · Tondela1–02
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes16 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Nacional15 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
