Bundesliga Gameweek 26 Sat, Mar 14 · 17:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 10th · 29 pts · 25 played
1–1Full time
1.FC Köln 14th · 24 pts · 25 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Hamburger SV were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Hamburger SV. Hamburger SV had 7.1 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 7 and had to travel 357 km.

Away travel357 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Hamburger SV49%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln27%
Expected goals 1.72 – 1.22
Hamburger SV47%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln27%
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14
Hamburger SV49%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln26%
Expected goals 1.72 – 1.20
Hamburger SV41%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln33%
Expected goals 1.54 – 1.37
Hamburger SV48%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln27%
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.17
Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.22
  • Matches 50

Team strength

Hamburger SV1.FC Köln
39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34
40 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
37 AttackIn forecast 36
43 DefenceIn forecast 36
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hamburger SV1.FC Köln
1.12 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.36
1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.72
1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.20
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.16
64% Scored inContext 84%
24% Clean sheetsContext 12%
12.12 ShotsContext 12.04
4.68 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25
39% On target shareContext 34%
7.83 Shots in the boxContext 8.46
63% Box shareContext 68%
9% ConversionContext 11%
2.29 OffsidesContext 2.47
13.44 Shots allowedContext 13.96
4.79 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.92
3.46 BlocksContext 4.25
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17
65% Save rateContext 64%
47% PossessionIn forecast 47%
397 PassesContext 392
324 Accurate passesContext 316
82% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.83
11.76 FoulsContext 7.76
12.72 Fouls sufferedContext 10.48
2.12 Yellow cardsContext 1.52
0.04 Red cardsContext 0.08
This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.24
1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.80 ShotsContext 13.10
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
42% On target shareContext 30%
6.90 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
57% Box shareContext 77%
10% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.86
13.10 Shots allowedContext 14.30
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
3.10 BlocksContext 4.22
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
71% Save rateContext 61%
47% PossessionIn forecast 44%
396 PassesContext 351
318 Accurate passesContext 271
80% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.87 Team ratingContext 6.83
11.20 FoulsContext 6.30
12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hamburger SV
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km272 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
1.FC Köln
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel357 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Hamburger SV 1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km357 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways272 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 3 / 41 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one76.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hamburger SV Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha 44L. Vušković 17W. Omari
28M. Muheim 6A. Sambi Lokonga 21N. Remberg 2W. Mikelbrencis
11R. Königsdörffer 20Fábio Vieira
19D. Downs
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
1.FC Köln Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund 39C. Özkacar 33R. van den Berg 5T. Krauß
6E. Martel 18Í. Jóhannesson
13S. El Mala 16J. Kamiński 38Y. Niang
9R. Ache
+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Hamburger SV Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Hamburger SV-0.3 pp
  • Draw-0.1 pp
  • 1.FC Köln+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Hamburger SV · Home 1.46points per game · 13 home games
W-D-L
5-4-4
Scored
1.46
Conceded
1.23
1.FC Köln · Away 0.75points per game · 12 away games
W-D-L
2-3-7
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.83

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

OpponentHamburger SV1.FC Köln
VfL Wolfsburg W 2–1 AL 0–1 H W 1–0 HD 3–3 A
Bayer Leverkusen L 0–1 H L 0–2 A
RB Leipzig L 1–2 HL 1–2 A L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
FSV Mainz 05 D 1–1 AW 4–0 H W 2–1 HW 1–0 A
Union Berlin W 3–2 HD 0–0 A L 0–1 H
1. FC Heidenheim W 2–0 AW 2–1 H D 2–2 A
Bayern München D 2–2 HL 0–5 A L 1–3 H
FC St. Pauli D 0–0 AL 0–2 H D 1–1 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach D 0–0 HD 0–0 A L 1–3 A
SC Freiburg L 1–2 A L 1–2 AW 4–1 H
Eintracht Frankfurt D 1–1 H L 3–4 H
1899 Hoffenheim L 1–4 A D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Werder Bremen W 3–2 H D 1–1 A
VfB Stuttgart W 2–1 H L 1–3 AL 1–2 H
FC Augsburg L 0–1 A L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Borussia Dortmund D 1–1 H L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Points29 of 72 · 1.21 per game21 of 72 · 0.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Hamburger SV wins0 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 2 Nov 20251.FC Köln4–1Hamburger SV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Hamburger SV1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 1.121.36
Conceded per game 1.441.72
Match goals 2.563.08 2.95
Over 1.5 72%80%
Over 2.5 52%60% 57%
Over 3.5 28%40%
Both teams scored 56%72% 59%
Clean sheets 24%12%
Failed to score 36%16%
Games2525
Hamburger SV1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 1.201.20
Conceded per game 1.101.90
Match goals 2.303.10 2.95
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 50%80% 57%
Over 3.5 20%40%
Both teams scored 60%80% 59%
Clean sheets 30%10%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Hamburger SV1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won3.754.54
Corners conceded5.255.88
Match total9.0010.429.59
Over 8.550% 12/2463% 15/24
Over 9.533% 8/2450% 12/24
Over 10.525% 6/2442% 10/24
Cards
Cards2.361.60
Opponent cards2.122.40
Match total4.484.003.88
Over 3.568% 17/2564% 16/25
Over 4.552% 13/2544% 11/25
Hamburger SV1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won3.785.30
Corners conceded6.445.00
Match total10.2210.309.59
Over 8.578% 7/970% 7/10
Over 9.533% 3/950% 5/10
Over 10.533% 3/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.501.30
Opponent cards1.902.70
Match total4.404.003.88
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 3.72
Red cards0.14league 0.18
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls23.3league 20.5
Penalties0.22league 0.37
Home wins46%league 46%
Hamburger SV2 with this referee
Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D23 Jan 26A · FC St. Pauli0–01
  • L18 Oct 25A · RB Leipzig1–21
1.FC Köln5 with this referee
Record1-0-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • L27 Feb 26A · FC Augsburg0–21
  • L18 May 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–43
  • W6 Apr 24H · VfL Bochum2–13
  • L10 Mar 23H · VfL Bochum0–22
  • L15 Jan 22H · Bayern München0–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Hamburger SV25 games · scored 28 · conceded 36
2 4 0-15
3 7 16-30
6 6 31-45
6 7 46-60
5 5 61-75
6 7 76-90
1.FC Köln25 games · scored 34 · conceded 43
5 4 0-15
5 6 16-30
2 9 31-45
7 6 46-60
1 8 61-75
14 10 76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
0-15
1 2 16-30
5 3 31-45
3 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2 3 0-15
2 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Borussia Mönchengladbach FC St. Pauli 20 Borussia Dortmund FC Augsburg 20 1899 Hoffenheim VfL Wolfsburg 11 Bayer Leverkusen Bayern München 11 Eintracht Frankfurt 1. FC Heidenheim 10 Hamburger SV 1.FC Köln 11 Werder Bremen FSV Mainz 05 02 SC Freiburg Union Berlin 01 VfB Stuttgart RB Leipzig 10