Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
14th · 16 pts · 16 played
WWLDL
0–0Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
10th · 19 pts · 17 played
WLLWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Borussia Mönchengladbach were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 34). Hamburger SV had 7 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.8 and had to travel 357 km.
Away travel357 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Hamburger SV37%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
Hamburger SV37%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach35%
Hamburger SV38%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
Hamburger SV30%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach44%
Hamburger SV37%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 63
Team strength
Hamburger SVBorussia Mönchengladbach
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
37
AttackIn forecast
34
43
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
63%
Scored inContext
59%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
12.19
ShotsContext
11.12
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.69
37%
On target shareContext
40%
8.27
Shots in the boxContext
8.06
66%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.36
14.06
Shots allowedContext
13.94
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.94
3.87
BlocksContext
3.29
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
63%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
394
PassesContext
431
324
Accurate passesContext
358
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.06
FoulsContext
10.47
12.63
Fouls sufferedContext
10.47
2.06
Yellow cardsContext
1.24
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.10
ShotsContext
9.70
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
36%
On target shareContext
42%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
73%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
18%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.80
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.78
BlocksContext
3.40
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
52%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
400
PassesContext
412
327
Accurate passesContext
336
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.20
FoulsContext
9.20
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
0.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,271 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel357 km552 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 2.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 357 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,271 km | 552 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
20Fábio Vieira
18B. Jatta
7Jean-Luc Dompe
19D. Downs
11R. Königsdörffer
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
20L. Netz
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
29J. Scally
10F. Neuhaus
9F. Honorat
15H. Tabaković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 1.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | L 4–6 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–4 A | L 1–5 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | W 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 A | L 0–3 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 15 of 45 · 1.00 per game | 17 of 45 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Hamburger SV wins1 draws0 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 24 Aug 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0Hamburger SV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.06 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 59% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 35% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 41% | |
| Games | 16 | 17 |
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.53 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 9.88 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 5/15 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 3/15 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 3.47 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 13/16 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 10/16 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.90 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 0.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 2.80 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 3.78
Red cards0.17league 0.20
Cards 5+46%league 39%
Fouls23.5league 21.1
Penalties0.35league 0.32
Home wins49%league 46%
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
Borussia Mönchengladbach7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L23 Aug 24H · Bayer Leverkusen2–31
- D11 May 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–11
- D2 Mar 24A · FSV Mainz 051–11
- L23 Sep 23H · RB Leipzig0–11
- W6 May 23H · VfL Bochum2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV16 games · scored 17 · conceded 27
2
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach17 games · scored 23 · conceded 29
2
6
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
