Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Hamburger SV
14th · 16 pts · 16 played
WWLDL
0–0Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
10th · 19 pts · 17 played
WLLWL
Hamburger SV37.4%fair odds 2.68
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
Borussia Mönchengladbach36.2%fair odds 2.76
Expected goals1.43 – 1.40total 2.83
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Hamburger SV ↓ · Borussia Mönchengladbach → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns Borussia Mönchengladbach goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%8.03
- 2–18.4%11.86
- 1–28.3%12.07
- 1–07.8%12.79
- 0–17.7%13.04
- 0–06.6%15.26
- 2–06.0%16.61
- 2–25.9%16.94
- 0–25.8%17.21
- 3–14.0%24.96
Winning margin
6.6%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 15.09
11.2%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 8.95
19.6%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 5.11
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
19.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 5.20
10.8%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 9.28
6.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 16.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Hamburger SV goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 37.4% | 37.0% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 27.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 36.2% | 35.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 50.7% | +2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.9% | 55.6% | +2.3 pp |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 1.36 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.40 | 1.34 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Hamburger SV win37.4%2.68
- Draw26.4%3.79
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win36.2%2.76
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw63.8%1.57
- Double chance Hamburger SV or Borussia Mönchengladbach73.6%1.36
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw62.6%1.60
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV50.8%1.97
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach49.2%2.03
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.578.0%1.28
- Over 2.553.7%1.86
- Over 3.531.4%3.19
- Over 4.515.6%6.39
- Under 1.522.0%4.54
- Under 2.546.3%2.16
- Under 3.568.6%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes57.9%1.73
- No42.1%2.37
- Yes and over 2.545.4%2.20
- Hamburger SV win and yes19.3%5.19
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes18.7%5.33
Team goals
- Hamburger SV over 0.576.0%1.32
- Hamburger SV over 1.541.7%2.40
- Hamburger SV over 2.517.3%5.79
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.575.3%1.33
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.540.8%2.45
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.516.7%6.00
- Hamburger SV clean sheet24.7%4.06
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet24.0%4.16
- Hamburger SV win to nil18.1%5.52
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil17.5%5.72
Handicap
- Hamburger SV −1.517.8%5.62
- Hamburger SV −2.56.6%15.09
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.582.2%1.22
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +2.593.4%1.07
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.517.0%5.88
- Hamburger SV +1.583.0%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored151
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.555
Over 2.5 called right63.6%
BTTS called right57.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.2% | 45.5% |
| 40–50% | 47 | 45.1% | 40.4% |
| 50–60% | 40 | 54.8% | 57.5% |
| 60–70% | 24 | 65.2% | 79.2% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.3% | 76.9% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 86.7% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 131 of 151 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5446 | 0.5412 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 43.5% |
| Favourite won | 58.0% | 56.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 131 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 151 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.