Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hamburger SV. Hamburger SV had 9 days of rest, RB Leipzig 8 and had to travel 294 km.
Away travel294 kmRest days9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Hamburger SV31%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig45%
Hamburger SV28%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig45%
Hamburger SV32%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig44%
Hamburger SV24%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig53%
Hamburger SV31%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig43%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 74
Team strength
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
37
AttackIn forecast
76
43
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVRB Leipzig
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
64%
Scored inContext
91%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
12.73
ShotsContext
15.57
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.57
38%
On target shareContext
36%
8.38
Shots in the boxContext
11.17
64%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.32
OffsidesContext
2.21
13.45
Shots allowedContext
11.65
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.52
BlocksContext
3.59
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
64%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
404
PassesContext
501
333
Accurate passesContext
426
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.18
FoulsContext
9.00
12.59
Fouls sufferedContext
10.39
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.48
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.90
ShotsContext
15.00
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
40%
On target shareContext
36%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
11.90
63%
Box shareContext
78%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.20
BlocksContext
2.56
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
60%
Save rateContext
59%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
412
PassesContext
548
338
Accurate passesContext
470
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.20
FoulsContext
8.60
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km828 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel294 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Feb | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 294 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 828 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
20Fábio Vieira
2W. Mikelbrencis
27P. Otele
11R. Königsdörffer
19D. Downs
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
10B. Gruda
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-2
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.18
RB Leipzig · Away
1.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-3
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | W 6–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 A | W 6–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 26 of 63 · 1.24 per game | 38 of 63 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Hamburger SV wins0 draws1 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 Oct 2025RB Leipzig2–1Hamburger SV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 3.30 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 65% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 57% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 9% | |
| Games | 22 | 23 |
| Hamburger SV | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.50 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 5.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.95 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 8.81 | 10.04 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 9/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 7/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.45 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 4.59 | 3.44 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 15/22 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 12/22 | 22% 5/23 | |
| Hamburger SV | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 9.00 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.10 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.77
Red cards0.16league 0.16
Cards 5+31%league 38%
Fouls23.6league 20.7
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins47%league 47%
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
RB Leipzig7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D10 May 25A · Werder Bremen0–03
- D25 Jan 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–22
- L4 Nov 23A · FSV Mainz 050–21
- W27 Aug 22H · VfL Wolfsburg2–03
- W8 May 22H · FC Augsburg4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV22 games · scored 25 · conceded 32
2
4
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
5
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
RB Leipzig23 games · scored 44 · conceded 32
6
0-15
5
4
16-30
10
6
31-45
10
7
46-60
9
5
61-75
4
10
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
2
61-75
1
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
