Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
12th · 34 pts · 32 played
DLLLW
3–2Full time
SC Freiburg
7th · 44 pts · 32 played
LWWLD
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 37). SC Freiburg come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Hamburger SV had 8 days of rest, SC Freiburg 2.8 and had to travel 636 km.
Away travel636 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 4
Hamburger SV32%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg43%
Hamburger SV29%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg44%
Hamburger SV33%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg42%
Hamburger SV25%
Draw23%
SC Freiburg51%
Hamburger SV29%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg46%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 130
Team strength
Hamburger SVSC Freiburg
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
37
AttackIn forecast
63
43
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVSC Freiburg
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
1.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.66
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
69%
Scored inContext
72%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.47
ShotsContext
12.28
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
39%
On target shareContext
35%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.83
63%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.12
OffsidesContext
2.36
14.06
Shots allowedContext
13.38
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.55
BlocksContext
4.31
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
65%
Save rateContext
65%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
380
PassesContext
397
308
Accurate passesContext
324
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.44
FoulsContext
9.00
12.59
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
2.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
80%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.70
ShotsContext
11.90
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
43%
On target shareContext
40%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
61%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.90
15.40
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.60
BlocksContext
3.60
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
66%
Save rateContext
66%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
328
PassesContext
387
253
Accurate passesContext
318
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.80
FoulsContext
10.10
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km785 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel636 km3,718 km in 14d
Schedule load59%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | High · 59 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 7 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 636 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 785 km | 3,718 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 2 / 4 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
23A. Grønbæk
6A. Sambi Lokonga
21N. Remberg
18B. Jatta
11R. Königsdörffer
20Fábio Vieira
49Otto Stange
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
29P. Treu
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
9L. Höler
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- SC Freiburg+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.31points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-5
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.25
SC Freiburg · Away
0.94points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-9
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 HL 1–4 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–3 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 HL 1–4 A | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 H | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A | L 2–3 HL 2–6 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 34 of 93 · 1.10 per game | 41 of 93 · 1.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Hamburger SV wins0 draws1 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Jan 2026SC Freiburg2–1Hamburger SV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.59 | 1.66 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 3.06 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 63% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 59% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 28% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Hamburger SV | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 9.53 | 9.19 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 18/30 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 14/30 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 10/30 | 26% 7/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.34 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.44 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 4.78 | 3.91 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 23/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 19/32 | 38% 12/32 | |
| Hamburger SV | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.44 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 8.63 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.30 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 130 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.65league 3.69
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+54%league 37%
Fouls21.8league 20.2
Penalties0.31league 0.35
Home wins43%league 44%
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
SC Freiburg9 with this referee
Record2-3-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W12 Apr 26A · FSV Mainz 051–04
- D14 Dec 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–13
- L23 Aug 25H · FC Augsburg1–34
- L5 Apr 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–41
- L18 Jan 25A · VfB Stuttgart0–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV32 games · scored 36 · conceded 51
2
4
0-15
4
10
16-30
10
10
31-45
9
10
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
11
76-90
SC Freiburg32 games · scored 45 · conceded 53
7
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
7
10
31-45
9
17
46-60
8
3
61-75
11
13
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
