Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Hamburger SV
12th · 34 pts · 32 played
DLLLW
3–2Full time
SC Freiburg
7th · 44 pts · 32 played
LWWLD
Hamburger SV32.2%fair odds 3.10
Draw24.6%fair odds 4.07
SC Freiburg43.2%fair odds 2.32
Expected goals1.44 – 1.70total 3.14
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Hamburger SV ↓ · SC Freiburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns SC Freiburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%8.97
- 1–29.0%11.12
- 2–17.6%13.08
- 0–16.8%14.78
- 2–26.5%15.40
- 0–26.2%16.07
- 1–05.7%17.65
- 1–35.1%19.63
- 0–04.9%20.53
- 2–04.5%22.23
Winning margin
5.6%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 17.99
9.5%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 10.51
17.2%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 5.83
24.6%
Draw
fair 4.07
20.3%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.93
13.2%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 7.60
9.7%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 10.29
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Hamburger SV goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
SC Freiburg goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 32.2% | 28.8% | +3.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.9% | -0.3 pp |
| SC Freiburg win | 43.2% | 46.3% | -3.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 57.9% | +3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 63.0% | 60.2% | +2.8 pp |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 1.44 | 1.30 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.70 | 1.70 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Hamburger SV win32.2%3.10
- Draw24.6%4.07
- SC Freiburg win43.2%2.32
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw56.8%1.76
- Double chance Hamburger SV or SC Freiburg75.4%1.33
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw67.8%1.48
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV42.7%2.34
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg57.3%1.75
Goals
- Over 0.595.1%1.05
- Over 1.582.7%1.21
- Over 2.560.8%1.64
- Over 3.538.5%2.60
- Over 4.520.9%4.77
- Under 1.517.3%5.78
- Under 2.539.2%2.55
- Under 3.561.5%1.63
Both teams to score
- Yes63.0%1.59
- No37.0%2.70
- Yes and over 2.551.9%1.93
- Hamburger SV win and yes18.8%5.31
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- SC Freiburg win and yes24.5%4.09
Team goals
- Hamburger SV over 0.576.4%1.31
- Hamburger SV over 1.542.3%2.36
- Hamburger SV over 2.517.7%5.64
- SC Freiburg over 0.581.7%1.22
- SC Freiburg over 1.550.7%1.97
- SC Freiburg over 2.524.3%4.12
- Hamburger SV clean sheet18.3%5.47
- SC Freiburg clean sheet23.6%4.24
- Hamburger SV win to nil13.4%7.46
- SC Freiburg win to nil18.7%5.34
Handicap
- Hamburger SV −1.515.1%6.63
- Hamburger SV −2.55.6%17.99
- SC Freiburg +1.584.9%1.18
- SC Freiburg +2.594.4%1.06
- SC Freiburg −1.522.9%4.37
- Hamburger SV +1.577.1%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored294
Favourite won56.1%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.563
Over 2.5 called right61.9%
BTTS called right59.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.3% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 93 | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 75 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 46 | 64.6% | 67.4% |
| 70–80% | 29 | 74.5% | 79.3% |
| 80%+ | 13 | 87.2% | 76.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 240 of 294 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5628 | 0.5582 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.3% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 56.7% | 55.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 294 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.