Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahce

Süper Lig Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 21 · 16:00 Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

Kocaelispor 8th · 12 pts · 8 played WLWLL

VS— Compare

Fenerbahce 3rd · 16 pts · 8 played LDWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel197 kmRest days14.2 · 13.1Matches / 14d0 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Kocaelispor—%

Draw—%

Fenerbahce—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Kocaeli)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Kocaelispor

Fenerbahce

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

16 AttackIn forecast 75

32 DefenceIn forecast 53

33 Form indexContext 65

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kocaelispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kocaelispor

Fenerbahce

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 2.72

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

75% Scored inContext 88%

38% Clean sheetsContext 63%

11.25 ShotsContext 18.57

4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.71

32% On target shareContext 42%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 13.43

55% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 17%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.43

15.50 Shots allowedContext 13.43

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

2.88 BlocksContext 3.29

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

80% Save rateContext 79%

48% PossessionIn forecast 53%

401 PassesContext 474

323 Accurate passesContext 414

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.13

12.00 FoulsContext 13.00

13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 2.57

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

60% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.40 ShotsContext 16.11

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.56

29% On target shareContext 41%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.33

56% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.33

14.60 Shots allowedContext 14.33

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25

2.60 BlocksContext 3.56

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.63

80% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 49%

415 PassesContext 429

339 Accurate passesContext 369

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.80 FoulsContext 12.89

14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kocaelispor WLWLL

Rest14.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 33 · 6 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L18 OctH · Goztepe1–21.4 xPts
L11 OctA · Besiktas1–20.6 xPts
W19 SepH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–01.6 xPts
L13 SepA · Galatasaray0–10.5 xPts
W6 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.5 xPts

Fenerbahce DWWLW

Rest13.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel197 km1,016 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kocaelispor	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 7 Nov	13.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	197 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,016 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kocaelispor Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Goztepe (H) 1–2, 18 Oct

83S. Öztaşdelen(G)

3Muharrem Cinan 5E. Ortakaya 2A. Dijksteel 22U. Yıldız

10B. Kutlu 14Show 20Mahamadou Susoho

26Metehan Altunbaş 7Daniel Agyei 11Gonçalo Sousa

Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct

31Ederson(G)

22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté

70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci

9R. Lukaku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kocaelispor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Fenerbahce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Kocaelispor · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Fenerbahce · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Kocaelispor	Fenerbahce
Besiktas	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 A
Samsunspor	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
Konyaspor	W 2–1 A	W 4–2 H
Points	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Kocaelispor wins0 draws2 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

2 Feb 2026Kocaelispor0–2Fenerbahce
23 Aug 2025Fenerbahce3–1Kocaelispor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kocaelispor	Fenerbahce
Scored per game	1.13	2.75
Conceded per game	1.00	0.75
Match goals	2.13	3.50
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	38%	75%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	38%	38%
Clean sheets	38%	63%
Failed to score	25%	13%
Games	8	8

	Kocaelispor	Fenerbahce
Scored per game	0.90	2.40
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	1.90	3.60
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	70%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	40%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kocaelispor	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.38	6.29
Corners conceded	5.25	3.14
Match total	8.63	9.43	9.12
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.38
Opponent cards	1.75	1.38
Match total	3.25	2.76	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	25% 2/8
Over 4.5	13% 1/8	25% 2/8

	Kocaelispor	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	5.22
Corners conceded	4.70	4.22
Match total	7.90	9.44	9.12
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	1.40
Match total	3.90	3.30	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.