Süper Lig Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 8 · 13:00 Çorum Şehir Stadyumu, Çorum
Çorum FK 6th · 13 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Fenerbahce 3rd · 16 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Fenerbahce are slight favourites.

Fenerbahce are the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 32). Çorum FK have 8.1 days of rest, Fenerbahce 3.8 and have to travel 508 km.

Away travel508 kmRest days8.1 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Çorum FK26%
Draw22%
Fenerbahce51%
Expected goals 1.43 – 2.05
Çorum FK26%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce48%
Expected goals 1.11 – 1.61
Çorum FK26%
Draw22%
Fenerbahce51%
Expected goals 1.43 – 2.05
Çorum FK20%
Draw20%
Fenerbahce60%
Expected goals 1.28 – 2.29
Çorum FK26%
Draw23%
Fenerbahce51%
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.98
Over 2.5 68% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Çorum)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Çorum FK and Fenerbahce. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Çorum FKFenerbahce
32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64
32 Current StrengthIn forecast 62
31 AttackIn forecast 75
36 DefenceIn forecast 53
70 Form indexContext 65
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Çorum FK

Attack−18%
Defense risk+59%

Fenerbahce

Attack−3%
Defense risk+5%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Çorum FKFenerbahce
2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75
1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75
1.12 xGVia Att/Def 2.72
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
+1.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.03
88% Scored inContext 88%
25% Clean sheetsContext 63%
12.25 ShotsContext 18.57
4.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.71
40% On target shareContext 42%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.43
55% Box shareContext 70%
18% ConversionContext 17%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.43
14.75 Shots allowedContext 13.43
4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
4.50 BlocksContext 3.29
3.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33
68% Save rateContext 79%
53% PossessionIn forecast 53%
466 PassesContext 474
403 Accurate passesContext 414
87% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.92 Team ratingContext 7.13
12.88 FoulsContext 13.00
9.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.12 xGVia Att/Def 2.57
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34
+1.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
88% Scored inContext 80%
25% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.25 ShotsContext 16.11
4.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.56
40% On target shareContext 41%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.33
55% Box shareContext 69%
18% ConversionContext 17%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.33
14.75 Shots allowedContext 14.33
4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25
4.50 BlocksContext 3.56
3.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.63
68% Save rateContext 74%
53% PossessionIn forecast 49%
466 PassesContext 429
403 Accurate passesContext 369
87% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.92 Team ratingContext 7.00
12.88 FoulsContext 12.89
9.38 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Çorum FK
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,505 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 70 · 12 pts vs 9.6 for an average club · +4.4 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Rizespor2–11.7 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Gazişehir Gaziantep3–01.3 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Alanyaspor1–21.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Samsunspor5–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Eyüpspor3–01.7 xPts
Fenerbahce
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel508 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
  • D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Çorum FK Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Oct3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km508 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,505 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 41 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one15.213.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Çorum FK Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Rizespor (H) 2–1, 16 Oct
1Marcos Felipe(G)
6H. Smolčić 2Ç. Söyüncü 5Alexandre Penetra
24A. Borza 10M. Diomande 3B. Özdemir 11G. Sazdağı
89A. Kyziridis 19J. Ramírez 7C. Ünder
Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté
70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci
9R. Lukaku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Çorum FK No reported absences
Fenerbahce No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Çorum FK+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Fenerbahce+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Çorum FK · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.00
Fenerbahce · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentÇorum FKFenerbahce
Rizespor W 2–1 H W 3–0 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep W 3–0 A D 0–0 A
Alanyaspor L 1–2 H W 3–0 H
Samsunspor W 5–1 A W 2–0 A
Eyüpspor W 3–0 H W 8–0 H
Besiktas L 2–6 A L 1–2 H
Points12 of 18 · 2.00 per game13 of 18 · 2.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Çorum FKFenerbahceForecast
Scored per game 2.252.75
Conceded per game 1.630.75
Match goals 3.883.50 3.48
Over 1.5 88%88%
Over 2.5 88%75% 68%
Over 3.5 38%25%
Both teams scored 63%38% 67%
Clean sheets 25%63%
Failed to score 13%13%
Games88
Çorum FKFenerbahceForecast
Scored per game 2.252.40
Conceded per game 1.631.20
Match goals 3.883.60 3.48
Over 1.5 88%90%
Over 2.5 88%70% 68%
Over 3.5 38%30%
Both teams scored 63%40% 67%
Clean sheets 25%50%
Failed to score 13%20%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Çorum FKFenerbahceLeague
Corners
Corners won3.866.29
Corners conceded6.003.14
Match total9.869.439.12
Over 8.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 9.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 10.543% 3/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.251.38
Opponent cards1.381.38
Match total3.632.764.04
Over 3.550% 4/825% 2/8
Over 4.513% 1/825% 2/8
Çorum FKFenerbahceLeague
Corners
Corners won3.865.22
Corners conceded6.004.22
Match total9.869.449.12
Over 8.571% 5/756% 5/9
Over 9.557% 4/744% 4/9
Over 10.543% 3/733% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.251.90
Opponent cards1.381.40
Match total3.633.304.04
Over 3.550% 4/840% 4/10
Over 4.513% 1/830% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Çorum FK8 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
4 3 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 3 76-90
Fenerbahce8 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
6 1 0-15
3 16-30
4 2 31-45
4 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Çorum FK8 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
4 3 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 3 76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
5 2 0-15
5 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 46-60
1 4 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Gazişehir Gaziantep Kasimpasa Nov 617:00 Eyüpspor Kocaelispor Nov 710:30 Samsunspor Konyaspor Nov 713:00 Galatasaray Amed Nov 716:00 Goztepe Istanbul Basaksehir Nov 716:00 Rizespor Erzurumspor FK Nov 810:30 Çorum FK Fenerbahce Nov 813:00 Alanyaspor Trabzonspor Nov 815:30 Besiktas Genclerbirligi Nov 818:00