34% Home win
26% Draw
39% Away win
Kortrijk 18th · 3 pts · 8 played
19:30
4 Nov 2026
Compare
KV Mechelen 15th · 6 pts · 8 played
Our take

It looks too close to call.

KV Mechelen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kortrijk. Kortrijk have 4.1 days of rest, KV Mechelen 4.2 and have to travel 88 km. Conditions look neutral.

Kortrijk34%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen39%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.46
Kortrijk32%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen41%
Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44
Kortrijk34%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen39%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.46
Kortrijk27%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen47%
Expected goals 1.20 – 1.64
Kortrijk35%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen39%
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.50
Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Wed, Nov 4 · 19:30 Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk
Away travel88 kmRest days4.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Squad & lineups

Kortrijk Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Genk (A) 0–3, 10 Oct
1P. Gunnarsson(G)
3M. Anderson 4H. Murray-Campbell 21A. Drouhin 36R. Kohon
70A. Phillips 35B. Lambert 19B. Dejaegere
68T. Ambrose 10G. Koyalipou 11S. Campbell
KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman
28B. Boersma

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Kortrijk No reported absences
KV Mechelen No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Kortrijk+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • KV Mechelen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Schedule last 5 · schedule

Kortrijk
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km327 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 13 · 3 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L10 OctA · Genk0–30.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · SK Beveren1–01.2 xPts
  • L13 SepA · RAAL La Louvière0–31.0 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Zulte Waregem0–21.0 xPts
  • L3 SepA · Anderlecht0–10.5 xPts
KV Mechelen
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
  • L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
  • D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts

Next Matches

Kortrijk
KV Mechelen

Match difficulty: 0–100, higher is harder. Based on current relative Elo.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentKortrijkKV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière L 0–3 A D 2–2 A
Anderlecht L 0–1 A L 0–1 H
Charleroi L 1–3 H L 0–2 A
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Kortrijk KV Mechelen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 31 Oct4.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km88 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways327 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 21 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one3.82.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Head to head

Statistics

Compare teams →
Kortrijk Record · 2 KV Mechelen
0
100%
2
Goals3.00
Total: 6
0.00Home / Away3.00
BTTS0%
Total: 0 / 2
0Yes / No2
Over 2.5100%
Total: 2 / 2
2Over / Under0

Latest H2H Matches

Rating Corners Fouls Yellow cards
24 Feb2024
KV Mechelen—3
Kortrijk—0
7.186.53
44
28
00
26 Nov2023
Kortrijk—0
KV Mechelen—3
6.747.37
43
1212
22

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Summary uses the recorded sample above; Home / Away refers to the teams in this fixture. xG, corners, fouls and yellow cards are actual match statistics. Rating is the saved team average of player ratings weighted by minutes (0–10). Yellow cards include second yellows; missing values remain unavailable. Head-to-head is historical context, not a forecast adjustment.

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Kortrijk and KV Mechelen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.