Aston Villa
Attack+8%
Defense risk−4%
Our take
Aston Villa are slight favourites.
Aston Villa are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fulham. Aston Villa have 7.4 days of rest, Fulham 7.3 and have to travel 163 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel163 kmRest days7.4 · 7.3Matches / 14d2 · 1
Aston Villa60%
Draw20%
Fulham20%
Aston Villa60%
Draw23%
Fulham17%
Aston Villa60%
Draw20%
Fulham20%
Aston Villa51%
Draw22%
Fulham26%
Aston Villa59%
Draw21%
Fulham20%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 9 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
10°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 21%
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 97%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Aston Villa and Fulham. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Fulham
+0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.61xG against1.30
-
Insight
Aston Villa
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Aston Villa
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Aston Villa
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Fulham
+0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.61xG against1.30
-
Trend
Aston Villa
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Aston Villa
6
Scoring in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
Team strength
Aston VillaFulham
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
83
AttackIn forecast
66
78
DefenceIn forecast
68
84
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack−8%
Defense risk+17%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Aston VillaFulham
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.62
57%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.86
ShotsContext
14.71
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
27%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
64%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.00
15.86
Shots allowedContext
14.14
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
3.83
BlocksContext
4.43
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
71%
Save rateContext
66%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
410
PassesContext
564
339
Accurate passesContext
486
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.71
FoulsContext
10.43
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.43
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.60
ShotsContext
15.10
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
35%
On target shareContext
31%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
65%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.11
15.60
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.22
BlocksContext
3.89
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
73%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
404
PassesContext
548
340
Accurate passesContext
472
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.50
FoulsContext
10.60
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
LWDWW
Rest7.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Fulham
LDDLW
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel163 km276 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.4Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Oct | 7.3Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 276 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Last XI · not confirmed
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
2M. Cash
35João Gomes
8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía
44J. Manzambi
47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson
Fulham
Last XI · not confirmed
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
22D. Affengruber
21T. Castagne
19S. Charles
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
No reported absences
Fulham
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fulham+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Fulham · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Aston Villa wins0 draws2 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.90 – 0.90
Over 2.570%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 25 Apr 2026Fulham1–0Aston Villa
- 28 Sep 2025Aston Villa3–1Fulham
- 3 May 2025Aston Villa1–0Fulham
- 19 Oct 2024Fulham1–3Aston Villa
- 17 Feb 2024Fulham1–2Aston Villa
- 12 Nov 2023Aston Villa3–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.43 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.20 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 6.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 7.43 | 10.72 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.14 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 5.28 | 3.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.90 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.40 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Fulham7 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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