Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Nov 8 · 15:00 Planet Group Arena, Gent
Gent 1st · 22 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Kortrijk 18th · 3 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Gent are clear favourites.

Gent are the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Gent. Gent have 6.9 days of rest, Kortrijk 7.9 and have to travel 40 km.

Away travel40 kmRest days6.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Gent74%
Draw17%
Kortrijk9%
Expected goals 2.41 – 0.74
Gent71%
Draw18%
Kortrijk11%
Expected goals 2.30 – 0.78
Gent74%
Draw17%
Kortrijk9%
Expected goals 2.41 – 0.74
Gent67%
Draw20%
Kortrijk13%
Expected goals 2.15 – 0.83
Gent75%
Draw16%
Kortrijk9%
Expected goals 2.49 – 0.77
Over 2.5 61% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Gent and Kortrijk. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GentKortrijk
46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 12
46 Current StrengthIn forecast 12
46 AttackIn forecast 10
61 DefenceIn forecast 16
84 Form indexContext 13
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Gent

Attack—
Defense risk—

Kortrijk

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GentKortrijk
1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.25
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 0.81
0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.15
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.56
100% Scored inContext 25%
50% Clean sheetsContext 13%
12.38 ShotsContext 11.25
5.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.63
41% On target shareContext 23%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.88
65% Box shareContext 59%
15% ConversionContext 2%
2.33 OffsidesContext 3.00
10.63 Shots allowedContext 14.25
3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.25
3.50 BlocksContext 3.00
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
88% Save rateContext 62%
46% PossessionIn forecast 44%
456 PassesContext 396
386 Accurate passesContext 314
85% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.47
10.25 FoulsContext 12.00
9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 9.88
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.30
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.81
1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.15
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.51
80% Scored inContext 30%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.20 ShotsContext 10.40
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60
36% On target shareContext 25%
8.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.30
67% Box shareContext 60%
12% ConversionContext 3%
2.29 OffsidesContext 2.86
12.60 Shots allowedContext 14.60
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20
3.80 BlocksContext 3.20
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
82% Save rateContext 67%
46% PossessionIn forecast 43%
453 PassesContext 383
384 Accurate passesContext 297
85% Pass accuracyContext 78%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.57
10.00 FoulsContext 11.80
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Gent
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km226 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +5.0 vs expected
  • W10 OctA · Zulte Waregem2–01.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Standard Liege2–11.9 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Genk1–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Cercle Brugge3–01.4 xPts
  • W3 SepH · OH Leuven1–02.2 xPts
Kortrijk
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel40 km327 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 13 · 3 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L10 OctA · Genk0–30.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · SK Beveren1–01.2 xPts
  • L13 SepA · RAAL La Louvière0–31.0 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Zulte Waregem0–21.0 xPts
  • L3 SepA · Anderlecht0–10.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Gent Kortrijk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 Nov7.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km40 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways226 km327 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one13.914

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Gent Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Zulte Waregem (A) 2–0, 10 Oct
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden 16C. Burgess 3M. Paskotši
20Tiago Araújo 17M. Delorge-Knieper 22Leonardo Lopes 45B. Goore
11M. Sonko 7M. Balikwisha
75Ibrahima Cisse
Kortrijk Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Genk (A) 0–3, 10 Oct
1P. Gunnarsson(G)
3M. Anderson 4H. Murray-Campbell 21A. Drouhin 36R. Kohon
70A. Phillips 35B. Lambert 19B. Dejaegere
68T. Ambrose 10G. Koyalipou 11S. Campbell

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Gent No reported absences
Kortrijk No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Gent+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Kortrijk+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Gent · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.50
Kortrijk · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-0-4
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentGentKortrijk
Zulte Waregem W 2–0 A L 0–2 H
Genk D 1–1 A L 0–3 A
Club Brugge KV W 2–1 H L 0–3 A
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 A L 0–3 A
Points10 of 12 · 2.50 per game0 of 12 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Gent wins0 draws0 Kortrijk wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 26 Dec 2023Kortrijk0–2Gent
  • 30 Jul 2023Gent3–2Kortrijk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GentKortrijkForecast
Scored per game 1.880.25
Conceded per game 0.502.25
Match goals 2.382.50 3.15
Over 1.5 88%75%
Over 2.5 50%63% 61%
Over 3.5 0%13%
Both teams scored 50%13% 48%
Clean sheets 50%13%
Failed to score 0%75%
Games88
GentKortrijkForecast
Scored per game 2.000.25
Conceded per game 0.502.25
Match goals 2.502.50 3.15
Over 1.5 90%75%
Over 2.5 50%63% 61%
Over 3.5 10%13%
Both teams scored 50%13% 48%
Clean sheets 50%13%
Failed to score 0%75%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GentKortrijkLeague
Corners
Corners won5.143.43
Corners conceded3.716.29
Match total8.859.7210.01
Over 8.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 9.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 10.543% 3/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards1.501.63
Match total3.003.633.36
Over 3.525% 2/863% 5/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
GentKortrijkLeague
Corners
Corners won5.783.67
Corners conceded4.006.56
Match total9.7810.2310.01
Over 8.567% 6/978% 7/9
Over 9.556% 5/967% 6/9
Over 10.556% 5/956% 5/9
Cards
Cards1.701.80
Opponent cards1.201.50
Match total2.903.303.36
Over 3.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Gent8 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
5 76-90
Kortrijk8 games · scored 2 · conceded 18
3 0-15
1 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 46-60
5 61-75
5 76-90
Gent10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
2 2 46-60
61-75
5 1 76-90
Kortrijk10 games · scored 3 · conceded 19
3 0-15
1 16-30
1 5 31-45
1 46-60
5 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege SK Beveren Nov 619:45 KVC Westerlo Charleroi Nov 715:00 OH Leuven KV Mechelen Nov 717:15 Antwerp Lommel United Nov 719:45 RAAL La Louvière Cercle Brugge Nov 719:45 Club Brugge KV Anderlecht Nov 812:30 Gent Kortrijk Nov 815:00 Union St. Gilloise Genk Nov 817:30 St. Truiden Zulte Waregem Nov 818:15