Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Oct 31 · 15:00 AFAS Stadion, Malines
KV Mechelen 14th · 6 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Genk 7th · 12 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Genk are slight favourites.

Genk are the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. KV Mechelen have 7.8 days of rest, Genk 6.1 and have to travel 72 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel72 kmRest days7.8 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
KV Mechelen26%
Draw25%
Genk49%
Expected goals 1.24 – 1.77
KV Mechelen30%
Draw27%
Genk43%
Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48
KV Mechelen26%
Draw25%
Genk49%
Expected goals 1.24 – 1.77
KV Mechelen20%
Draw23%
Genk57%
Expected goals 1.11 – 1.98
KV Mechelen27%
Draw25%
Genk49%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.76
Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
13°CMainly clear
  • Precipitation 20%
  • Wind 7 km/h
  • Humidity 75%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for KV Mechelen and Genk. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

KV MechelenGenk
23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 44
18 AttackIn forecast 46
23 DefenceIn forecast 50
20 Form indexContext 49
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Genk

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KV MechelenGenk
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.02 xGVia Att/Def 2.18
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
38% Scored inContext 75%
13% Clean sheetsContext 38%
11.13 ShotsContext 13.88
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
28% On target shareContext 36%
7.88 Shots in the boxContext 9.38
68% Box shareContext 66%
10% ConversionContext 14%
2.86 OffsidesContext 2.83
14.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50
5.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75
3.00 BlocksContext 5.29
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
58% Save rateContext 67%
47% PossessionIn forecast 54%
407 PassesContext 499
317 Accurate passesContext 432
78% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.55 Team ratingContext 6.97
12.25 FoulsContext 11.25
13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 10.38
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.88
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
0.88 xGVia Att/Def 2.14
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
40% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 50%
10.90 ShotsContext 15.50
3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
28% On target shareContext 37%
7.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
65% Box shareContext 68%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.63 OffsidesContext 2.75
14.50 Shots allowedContext 13.40
5.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60
3.40 BlocksContext 5.11
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60
60% Save rateContext 72%
47% PossessionIn forecast 54%
400 PassesContext 497
311 Accurate passesContext 429
78% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.55 Team ratingContext 7.01
10.90 FoulsContext 11.30
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

KV Mechelen
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
  • L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
  • D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts
Genk
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel72 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • W10 OctH · Kortrijk3–02.4 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Club Brugge KV0–30.9 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Gent1–11.7 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Anderlecht0–01.3 xPts
  • W28 AugH · SK Beveren4–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
KV Mechelen Genk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 23 Oct6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways176 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 21 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one7.18.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman
28B. Boersma
Genk Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Kortrijk (H) 3–0, 10 Oct
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe 44J. Kongolo 6M. Smets 20K. Amaro
8B. Heynen 38D. Heymans 4B. Tahirović
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg 17R. Durosinmi 10J. Ito

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
KV Mechelen No reported absences
Genk No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Genk+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

KV Mechelen · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.75
Conceded
2.75
Genk · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentKV MechelenGenk
Anderlecht L 0–1 H D 0–0 A
KVC Westerlo L 0–4 H W 3–2 H
Gent L 0–2 A D 1–1 H
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game5 of 9 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 KV Mechelen wins1 draws2 Genk wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%
  • 13 Feb 2026KV Mechelen2–3Genk
  • 23 Nov 2025Genk0–1KV Mechelen
  • 11 Feb 2024KV Mechelen1–1Genk
  • 22 Oct 2023Genk4–0KV Mechelen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KV MechelenGenkForecast
Scored per game 1.132.00
Conceded per game 2.131.50
Match goals 3.253.50 3.01
Over 1.5 75%88%
Over 2.5 50%75% 58%
Over 3.5 50%38%
Both teams scored 38%50% 60%
Clean sheets 13%38%
Failed to score 63%25%
Games88
KV MechelenGenkForecast
Scored per game 1.102.20
Conceded per game 2.102.20
Match goals 3.204.40 3.01
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 50%80% 58%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 40%60% 60%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 50%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KV MechelenGenkLeague
Corners
Corners won4.633.88
Corners conceded4.255.88
Match total8.889.7610.01
Over 8.550% 4/888% 7/8
Over 9.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 10.538% 3/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.501.88
Opponent cards2.132.00
Match total3.633.883.36
Over 3.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 4.550% 4/838% 3/8
KV MechelenGenkLeague
Corners
Corners won4.204.60
Corners conceded4.105.40
Match total8.3010.0010.01
Over 8.540% 4/1080% 8/10
Over 9.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 10.530% 3/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.501.70
Opponent cards2.101.80
Match total3.603.503.36
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

KV Mechelen8 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
Genk8 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3 4 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
1 5 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 7 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90
Genk10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3 4 0-15
2 1 16-30
6 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Zulte Waregem Club Brugge KV Oct 3019:45 KV Mechelen Genk Oct 3115:00 Standard Liege Kortrijk Oct 3117:15 Anderlecht KVC Westerlo Oct 3119:45 SK Beveren Union St. Gilloise Oct 3119:45 Cercle Brugge Antwerp Nov 112:30 St. Truiden OH Leuven Nov 115:00 Lommel United Gent Nov 117:30 Charleroi RAAL La Louvière Nov 118:15