Bournemouth vs Leeds – 31 Oct 2026

Premier League Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 31 · 15:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played DDLLW

VS— Compare

Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played DWDLD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Bournemouth. Bournemouth have 6 days of rest, Leeds 5.9 and have to travel 343 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel343 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

Bournemouth55%

Draw22%

Leeds23%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.26

Bournemouth46%

Draw26%

Leeds27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.14

Bournemouth55%

Draw22%

Leeds23%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.26

Bournemouth46%

Draw24%

Leeds30%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.41

Bournemouth53%

Draw24%

Leeds23%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.19

Over 2.5 64% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

11°CDrizzle

Precipitation 23%
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 87%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Bournemouth

Leeds

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

83 AttackIn forecast 69

82 DefenceIn forecast 77

74 Form indexContext 64

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack−4%

Defense risk−4%

Leeds

Attack−10%

Defense risk+16%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Leeds

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

86% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

15.14 ShotsContext 12.00

5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 33%

9.57 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

64% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.43

9.57 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.80 BlocksContext 5.17

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

55% Save rateContext 86%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

433 PassesContext 385

351 Accurate passesContext 302

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.89

13.00 FoulsContext 12.71

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.80 ShotsContext 11.50

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

32% On target shareContext 31%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

62% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.40

10.30 Shots allowedContext 14.90

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.29 BlocksContext 4.89

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

61% Save rateContext 77%

53% PossessionIn forecast 46%

434 PassesContext 376

353 Accurate passesContext 292

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.20 FoulsContext 11.90

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth WLLWW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km616 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected

W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts

Leeds DWDLD

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel343 km247 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct	5.9Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	343 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	616 km	247 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

10R. Christie 12T. Adams

16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan

9Evanilson

Leeds Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct

1J. Trafford(G)

5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin

3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 18A. Stach

9D. Calvert-Lewin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth No reported absences

Leeds No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Leeds+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Leeds · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Leeds
Brentford	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	W 4–1 H
Points	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Bournemouth wins2 draws1 Leeds wins

Goals per game2.75 – 2.25 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

22 Apr 2026Bournemouth2–2Leeds
27 Sep 2025Leeds2–2Bournemouth
30 Apr 2023Bournemouth4–1Leeds
5 Nov 2022Leeds4–3Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.29
Conceded per game	1.86	0.86
Match goals	3.14	2.14	3.27
Over 1.5	86%	71%
Over 2.5	57%	29%	64%
Over 3.5	43%	14%
Both teams scored	71%	71%	63%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	14%	14%
Games	7	7

	Bournemouth	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.10	3.27
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	64%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	63%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	4.00
Corners conceded	3.86	4.14
Match total	8.57	8.14	9.49
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.86
Opponent cards	1.57	2.43
Match total	4.57	4.29	4.17
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7

	Bournemouth	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.10
Corners conceded	4.60	5.70
Match total	9.20	9.80	9.49
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.80
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	4.60	3.80	4.17
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.