Premier League Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 31 · 15:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City 1st · 21 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Brighton 3rd · 16 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Manchester City are slight favourites.

Manchester City are the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 83). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brighton. Manchester City have 7.1 days of rest, Brighton 6 and have to travel 326 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel326 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester City52%
Draw21%
Brighton27%
Expected goals 2.30 – 1.66
Manchester City54%
Draw25%
Brighton21%
Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02
Manchester City52%
Draw21%
Brighton27%
Expected goals 2.30 – 1.66
Manchester City43%
Draw22%
Brighton35%
Expected goals 2.05 – 1.86
Manchester City50%
Draw22%
Brighton28%
Expected goals 2.03 – 1.48
Over 2.5 76% Both score 73% Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 31 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
11°CClear
  • Precipitation 36%
  • Wind 13 km/h
  • Humidity 68%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester City and Brighton. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Manchester CityBrighton
91 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83
91 Current StrengthIn forecast 83
92 AttackIn forecast 87
82 DefenceIn forecast 85
93 Form indexContext 94
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack−15%
Defense risk+29%

Brighton

Attack−11%
Defense risk+48%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Manchester CityBrighton
2.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.29
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71
2.20 xGVia Att/Def 2.09
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +1.20
100% Scored inContext 100%
43% Clean sheetsContext 71%
14.57 ShotsContext 17.86
5.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
36% On target shareContext 34%
10.57 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
70% Box shareContext 61%
19% ConversionContext 18%
2.17 OffsidesContext 3.50
11.43 Shots allowedContext 10.71
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83
3.00 BlocksContext 3.67
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
72% Save rateContext 70%
64% PossessionIn forecast 60%
635 PassesContext 509
567 Accurate passesContext 434
89% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.23 Team ratingContext 7.25
10.71 FoulsContext 12.86
14.57 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.14
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
2.16 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.59
100% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 60%
16.50 ShotsContext 17.10
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
36% On target shareContext 34%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.10
69% Box shareContext 65%
15% ConversionContext 15%
1.89 OffsidesContext 2.57
11.20 Shots allowedContext 9.80
4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56
2.50 BlocksContext 3.25
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
68% Save rateContext 72%
62% PossessionIn forecast 61%
606 PassesContext 518
541 Accurate passesContext 442
89% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.10 Team ratingContext 7.14
11.00 FoulsContext 11.70
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts
Brighton
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel326 km691 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 94 · 13 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +4.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Crystal Palace5–02.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Sunderland2–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Arsenal3–01.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Coventry5–01.7 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Leeds1–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester City Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Oct6Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km326 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways227 km691 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one4.28

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland
Brighton Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Crystal Palace (H) 5–0, 18 Oct
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli 5L. Dunk 44L. Vušković 24F. Kadıoğlu
14Chema Andrés 13P. Groß
29M. De Cuyper 26Y. Ayari 25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester City No reported absences
Brighton No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Manchester City+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Brighton+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.50
Brighton · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
3.33
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentManchester CityBrighton
Sunderland W 5–3 H W 2–0 A
Coventry W 1–0 H W 5–0 A
Crystal Palace W 4–1 A W 5–0 H
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Manchester City wins3 draws2 Brighton wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.10 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 0%
  • 7 Jan 2026Manchester City1–1Brighton
  • 31 Aug 2025Brighton2–1Manchester City
  • 15 Mar 2025Manchester City2–2Brighton
  • 9 Nov 2024Brighton2–1Manchester City
  • 25 Apr 2024Brighton0–4Manchester City
  • 21 Oct 2023Manchester City2–1Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Manchester CityBrightonForecast
Scored per game 2.713.29
Conceded per game 1.000.71
Match goals 3.714.00 3.96
Over 1.5 71%100%
Over 2.5 71%71% 76%
Over 3.5 43%57%
Both teams scored 57%29% 73%
Clean sheets 43%71%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games77
Manchester CityBrightonForecast
Scored per game 2.402.60
Conceded per game 1.300.90
Match goals 3.703.50 3.96
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 70%70% 76%
Over 3.5 40%40%
Both teams scored 60%20% 73%
Clean sheets 40%60%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester CityBrightonLeague
Corners
Corners won5.575.71
Corners conceded4.145.00
Match total9.7110.719.49
Over 8.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 9.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 10.557% 4/771% 5/7
Cards
Cards1.432.29
Opponent cards1.861.57
Match total3.293.864.17
Over 3.529% 2/757% 4/7
Over 4.514% 1/743% 3/7
Manchester CityBrightonLeague
Corners
Corners won6.406.11
Corners conceded3.704.78
Match total10.1010.899.49
Over 8.570% 7/1067% 6/9
Over 9.560% 6/1067% 6/9
Over 10.560% 6/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.501.70
Opponent cards1.501.50
Match total3.003.204.17
Over 3.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester City7 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Brighton7 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
4 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 1 61-75
5 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 26 · conceded 9
6 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 3 31-45
4 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Chelsea Manchester United Oct 3112:30 Bournemouth Leeds Oct 3115:00 Manchester City Brighton Oct 3115:00 Brentford Nottingham Forest Oct 3115:00 Hull City Ipswich Oct 3115:00 Coventry Sunderland Oct 3115:00 Tottenham Crystal Palace Oct 3117:30 Aston Villa Fulham Oct 3120:00 Liverpool Arsenal Nov 116:30 Newcastle Everton Nov 220:00