Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 31 · 17:30 Fußball Arena München, München
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Bayern München are clear favourites.

Bayern München are the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 81). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayern München. Bayern München have 6 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7 and have to travel 477 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel477 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayern München76%
Draw14%
Borussia Dortmund10%
Expected goals 3.09 – 1.14
Bayern München63%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund15%
Expected goals 2.02 – 0.89
Bayern München76%
Draw14%
Borussia Dortmund10%
Expected goals 3.09 – 1.14
Bayern München68%
Draw17%
Borussia Dortmund15%
Expected goals 2.76 – 1.27
Bayern München72%
Draw16%
Borussia Dortmund12%
Expected goals 2.65 – 1.00
Over 2.5 79% Both score 65% Likeliest score 3–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
11°CClear
  • Precipitation 12%
  • Wind 8 km/h
  • Humidity 83%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 80
96 AttackIn forecast 69
90 DefenceIn forecast 80
78 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack−26%
Defense risk+15%

Borussia Dortmund

Attack−38%
Defense risk+109%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
3.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67
3.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.76
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
83% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 67%
24.17 ShotsContext 15.17
10.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17
43% On target shareContext 34%
14.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
61% Box shareContext 73%
15% ConversionContext 12%
2.67 OffsidesContext 1.50
7.67 Shots allowedContext 11.67
2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.00 BlocksContext 2.80
2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
75% Save rateContext 78%
69% PossessionIn forecast 55%
706 PassesContext 530
635 Accurate passesContext 450
90% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.39 Team ratingContext 7.04
10.50 FoulsContext 11.17
9.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83
0.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
3.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
3.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.85
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
90% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 50%
22.80 ShotsContext 14.70
9.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
43% On target shareContext 39%
13.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
59% Box shareContext 72%
16% ConversionContext 13%
2.90 OffsidesContext 1.63
8.10 Shots allowedContext 11.20
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25
3.50 BlocksContext 2.78
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
70% Save rateContext 77%
68% PossessionIn forecast 54%
693 PassesContext 530
625 Accurate passesContext 454
90% Pass accuracyContext 86%
7.30 Team ratingContext 6.99
8.60 FoulsContext 10.90
8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km554 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel477 km6,897 km in 14d
Schedule load16%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayern München Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 16
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 25 Oct7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km477 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways554 km6,897 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 50 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one3.14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayern München No reported absences
Borussia Dortmund No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Bayern München+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Borussia Dortmund+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
6.00
Conceded
0.67
Borussia Dortmund · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
Union Berlin W 7–0 H D 0–0 A
VfB Stuttgart W 5–1 H W 1–0 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Bayern München wins3 draws1 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.50 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets10% · 10%
  • 28 Feb 2026Borussia Dortmund2–3Bayern München
  • 18 Oct 2025Bayern München2–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 12 Apr 2025Bayern München2–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 30 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund1–1Bayern München
  • 30 Mar 2024Bayern München0–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 4 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund0–4Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayern MünchenBorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 3.671.83
Conceded per game 0.830.67
Match goals 4.502.50 4.23
Over 1.5 83%67%
Over 2.5 83%50% 79%
Over 3.5 67%33%
Both teams scored 67%33% 65%
Clean sheets 33%67%
Failed to score 17%17%
Games66
Bayern MünchenBorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 3.601.90
Conceded per game 0.900.90
Match goals 4.502.80 4.23
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 80%50% 79%
Over 3.5 70%40%
Both teams scored 60%40% 65%
Clean sheets 40%50%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayern MünchenBorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won9.404.83
Corners conceded3.204.67
Match total12.609.5010.72
Over 8.5100% 5/567% 4/6
Over 9.5100% 5/567% 4/6
Over 10.5100% 5/533% 2/6
Cards
Cards0.832.67
Opponent cards2.172.00
Match total3.004.673.51
Over 3.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 4.50% 0/650% 3/6
Bayern MünchenBorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won8.445.80
Corners conceded3.784.50
Match total12.2210.3010.72
Over 8.5100% 9/970% 7/10
Over 9.578% 7/960% 6/10
Over 10.567% 6/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.002.20
Opponent cards1.901.50
Match total2.903.703.51
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SV Elversberg FSV Mainz 05 Oct 3019:30 Werder Bremen 1899 Hoffenheim Oct 3114:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach SC Paderborn 07 Oct 3114:30 Bayer Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart Oct 3114:30 FC Augsburg SC Freiburg Oct 3114:30 FC Schalke 04 RB Leipzig Oct 3114:30 Bayern München Borussia Dortmund Oct 3117:30 Union Berlin 1.FC Köln Nov 114:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Hamburger SV Nov 116:30