Premier League Gameweek 9 Sun, Nov 1 · 16:30 Anfield, Liverpool
Liverpool 5th · 12 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Arsenal 2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Arsenal are slight favourites.

Arsenal are the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 84). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Liverpool. Liverpool have 7.1 days of rest, Arsenal 8.1 and have to travel 286 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel286 kmRest days7.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Liverpool33%
Draw25%
Arsenal42%
Expected goals 1.45 – 1.65
Liverpool28%
Draw26%
Arsenal46%
Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55
Liverpool33%
Draw25%
Arsenal42%
Expected goals 1.45 – 1.65
Liverpool26%
Draw24%
Arsenal50%
Expected goals 1.29 – 1.85
Liverpool33%
Draw26%
Arsenal41%
Expected goals 1.31 – 1.49
Over 2.5 60% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
9°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 31%
  • Wind 8 km/h
  • Humidity 79%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Liverpool and Arsenal. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LiverpoolArsenal
84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94
84 Current StrengthIn forecast 94
85 AttackIn forecast 86
84 DefenceIn forecast 95
87 Form indexContext 92
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack−35%
Defense risk+32%

Arsenal

Attack−14%
Defense risk+22%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

LiverpoolArsenal
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57
1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71
1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.67
1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.78
-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
71% Scored inContext 86%
43% Clean sheetsContext 57%
15.71 ShotsContext 12.29
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14
32% On target shareContext 34%
8.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.71
55% Box shareContext 73%
8% ConversionContext 13%
2.14 OffsidesContext 4.00
11.86 Shots allowedContext 11.14
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.86 BlocksContext 3.00
2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
67% Save rateContext 71%
56% PossessionIn forecast 61%
482 PassesContext 520
408 Accurate passesContext 453
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.90 Team ratingContext 7.06
13.86 FoulsContext 10.14
10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 15.86
2.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60
1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85
-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
80% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 60%
17.40 ShotsContext 13.50
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
33% On target shareContext 34%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
62% Box shareContext 71%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.50 OffsidesContext 3.60
11.50 Shots allowedContext 10.80
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.20 BlocksContext 3.10
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63
62% Save rateContext 75%
56% PossessionIn forecast 57%
487 PassesContext 508
417 Accurate passesContext 441
86% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.99 Team ratingContext 7.06
12.10 FoulsContext 11.20
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts
Arsenal
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel286 km1,836 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Liverpool Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 5
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct8.1Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km1,836 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 50 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one3.13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo
8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister
29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak
Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice
10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka
29K. Havertz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Liverpool No reported absences
Arsenal No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Liverpool+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Arsenal+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 0.67points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.67
Arsenal · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentLiverpoolArsenal
Nottingham Forest D 2–2 H W 1–0 A
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Liverpool wins5 draws2 Arsenal wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.30 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 10%
  • 8 Jan 2026Arsenal0–0Liverpool
  • 31 Aug 2025Liverpool1–0Arsenal
  • 11 May 2025Liverpool2–2Arsenal
  • 27 Oct 2024Arsenal2–2Liverpool
  • 4 Feb 2024Arsenal3–1Liverpool
  • 23 Dec 2023Liverpool1–1Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LiverpoolArsenalForecast
Scored per game 1.291.57
Conceded per game 1.140.71
Match goals 2.432.29 3.10
Over 1.5 71%71%
Over 2.5 57%57% 60%
Over 3.5 29%0%
Both teams scored 43%29% 62%
Clean sheets 43%57%
Failed to score 29%14%
Games77
LiverpoolArsenalForecast
Scored per game 1.801.70
Conceded per game 1.300.60
Match goals 3.102.30 3.10
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 60%60% 60%
Over 3.5 30%0%
Both teams scored 60%30% 62%
Clean sheets 30%60%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LiverpoolArsenalLeague
Corners
Corners won4.864.71
Corners conceded4.434.00
Match total9.298.719.49
Over 8.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 9.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 10.543% 3/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.711.29
Opponent cards2.433.29
Match total5.144.584.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
LiverpoolArsenalLeague
Corners
Corners won6.604.67
Corners conceded4.104.44
Match total10.709.119.49
Over 8.560% 6/1044% 4/9
Over 9.560% 6/1044% 4/9
Over 10.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.201.60
Opponent cards2.202.80
Match total4.404.404.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Liverpool7 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Arsenal6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
2 76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 6 61-75
2 2 76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Chelsea Manchester United Oct 3112:30 Bournemouth Leeds Oct 3115:00 Manchester City Brighton Oct 3115:00 Brentford Nottingham Forest Oct 3115:00 Hull City Ipswich Oct 3115:00 Coventry Sunderland Oct 3115:00 Tottenham Crystal Palace Oct 3117:30 Aston Villa Fulham Oct 3120:00 Liverpool Arsenal Nov 116:30 Newcastle Everton Nov 220:00