OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Nov 7 · 17:15 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee

OH Leuven 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LLDWD

VS— Compare

KV Mechelen 14th · 6 pts · 8 played DLLDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

OH Leuven are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards OH Leuven. OH Leuven have 6.1 days of rest, KV Mechelen 7.1 and have to travel 24 km.

Away travel24 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

OH Leuven44%

Draw27%

KV Mechelen30%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.21

OH Leuven39%

Draw27%

KV Mechelen34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.28

OH Leuven44%

Draw27%

KV Mechelen30%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.21

OH Leuven37%

Draw27%

KV Mechelen36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.36

OH Leuven44%

Draw26%

KV Mechelen30%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.24

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heverlee)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

OH Leuven

KV Mechelen

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

17 AttackIn forecast 18

30 DefenceIn forecast 23

25 Form indexContext 20

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OH Leuven

Attack—

Defense risk—

KV Mechelen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OH Leuven

KV Mechelen

0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

63% Scored inContext 38%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.75 ShotsContext 11.13

2.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

19% On target shareContext 28%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.88

69% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.86

14.75 Shots allowedContext 14.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.71

5.14 BlocksContext 3.00

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

63% Save rateContext 58%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

418 PassesContext 407

329 Accurate passesContext 317

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.55

11.25 FoulsContext 12.25

11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 13.88

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

60% Scored inContext 40%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.70 ShotsContext 10.90

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

21% On target shareContext 28%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

70% Box shareContext 65%

6% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.63

15.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.56

4.78 BlocksContext 3.40

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

66% Save rateContext 60%

47% PossessionIn forecast 47%

402 PassesContext 400

318 Accurate passesContext 311

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.55

10.90 FoulsContext 10.90

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OH Leuven LLDWD

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

D11 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.3 xPts
W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts

KV Mechelen DLLDW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel24 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	OH Leuven	KV Mechelen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 Nov	7.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	24 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	15	14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

OH Leuven Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Union St. Gilloise (A) 1–1, 11 Oct

13K. Vroman(G)

34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence

99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil

21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy

KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct

13Nacho Mirás(G)

3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie

7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez

9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman

28B. Boersma

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

OH Leuven No reported absences

KV Mechelen No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
KV Mechelen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

OH Leuven · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

KV Mechelen · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	OH Leuven	KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 A
Gent	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Standard Liege	L 1–2 H	D 3–3 H
Charleroi	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Points	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game	2 of 12 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 OH Leuven wins2 draws0 KV Mechelen wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

1 Feb 2026OH Leuven2–2KV Mechelen
25 Oct 2025KV Mechelen1–1OH Leuven
17 Mar 2024OH Leuven1–0KV Mechelen
23 Sep 2023KV Mechelen1–2OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	OH Leuven	KV Mechelen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	1.13
Conceded per game	1.75	2.13
Match goals	2.50	3.25	2.74
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	13%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	38%	56%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	38%	63%
Games	8	8

	OH Leuven	KV Mechelen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.10
Conceded per game	1.40	2.10
Match goals	2.30	3.20	2.74
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	OH Leuven	KV Mechelen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	4.63
Corners conceded	8.25	4.25
Match total	11.50	8.88	10.01
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.13	1.50
Opponent cards	1.63	2.13
Match total	3.76	3.63	3.36
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	50% 4/8

	OH Leuven	KV Mechelen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	4.20
Corners conceded	8.20	4.10
Match total	11.80	8.30	10.01
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.10
Match total	3.20	3.60	3.36
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.