Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 66). Leeds had 7 days of rest, Bournemouth 6 and had to travel 343 km.
Away travel343 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Leeds40%
Draw26%
Bournemouth34%
Leeds39%
Draw27%
Bournemouth33%
Leeds40%
Draw26%
Bournemouth34%
Leeds33%
Draw26%
Bournemouth41%
Leeds39%
Draw27%
Bournemouth34%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 183
Team strength
Leeds
Bournemouth
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
69
AttackIn forecast
83
77
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsBournemouth
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.72
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
40%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.60
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
24%
On target shareContext
29%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
53%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.20
10.80
Shots allowedContext
8.00
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.50
BlocksContext
1.60
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
92%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
398
PassesContext
387
322
Accurate passesContext
304
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.20
FoulsContext
11.80
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.60
ShotsContext
12.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
29%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
63%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.22
7.70
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
2.86
BlocksContext
3.38
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
94%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
522
PassesContext
397
449
Accurate passesContext
321
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.89
8.10
FoulsContext
13.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km824 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bournemouth
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel343 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 343 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 824 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
3G. Gudmundsson
5P. Struijk
6J. Rodon
2J. Bogle
18A. Stach
4E. Ampadu
8S. Longstaff
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
11B. Aaronson
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
18B. Diakité
20Álex Jiménez
10R. Christie
12T. Adams
24A. Semenyo
19J. Kluivert
21A. Adli
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bournemouth
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Bournemouth+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Bournemouth · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Leeds wins0 draws1 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game2.50 – 3.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Apr 2023Bournemouth4–1Leeds
- 5 Nov 2022Leeds4–3Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Leeds | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 7.25 | 9.75 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 5.40 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Leeds | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.63 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 8.63 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 5.30 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 183 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.57
Red cards0.14league 0.16
Cards 5+34%league 39%
Fouls22.5league 22.4
Penalties0.29league 0.24
Home wins42%league 47%
Leeds9 with this referee
Record2-1-6
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 4
- L4 Mar 23A · Chelsea0–10
- L13 Jan 23A · Aston Villa1–22
- W29 Oct 22A · Liverpool2–11
- L23 Feb 22A · Liverpool0–63
- D29 Aug 21A · Burnley1–13
Bournemouth6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W14 Apr 25H · Fulham1–03
- L25 Feb 25A · Brighton1–21
- W2 Nov 24H · Manchester City2–12
- W30 Sep 24H · Southampton3–12
- D17 Aug 24A · Nottingham Forest1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds5 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
Bournemouth5 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
61-75
4
2
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
