Leeds vs Liverpool – 6 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 6 · 17:30 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 17th · 14 pts · 14 played LLLLW

3–3Full time

Liverpool 12th · 22 pts · 14 played WLLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 62). Absences weigh more on Leeds. Leeds had 2.9 days of rest, Liverpool 2.9 and had to travel 104 km.

Away travel104 kmRest days2.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

Leeds24%

Draw24%

Liverpool52%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.78

Leeds26%

Draw26%

Liverpool48%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.61

Leeds25%

Draw24%

Liverpool50%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.78

Leeds18%

Draw22%

Liverpool59%

Expected goals 1.03 – 2.00

Leeds25%

Draw26%

Liverpool49%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.62

Over 2.5 56% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 196

Team strength

Leeds

Liverpool

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 86

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 84

69 AttackIn forecast 85

77 DefenceIn forecast 84

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Liverpool

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

64% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

12.29 ShotsContext 15.43

3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.21

30% On target shareContext 27%

8.21 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

64% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.45

11.57 Shots allowedContext 11.07

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.75 BlocksContext 3.23

2.62 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

64% Save rateContext 61%

46% PossessionIn forecast 62%

410 PassesContext 533

334 Accurate passesContext 458

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.64 FoulsContext 10.43

12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 10.43

1.64 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

80% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.80 ShotsContext 17.10

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

34% On target shareContext 35%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

67% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.13 OffsidesContext 3.29

12.40 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.89 BlocksContext 2.70

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

60% Save rateContext 61%

47% PossessionIn forecast 60%

417 PassesContext 535

342 Accurate passesContext 466

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.70 FoulsContext 10.80

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km115 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Liverpool

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel104 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec	2.9Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	104 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	115 km	573 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	2 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Lucas Perri(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 6J. Rodon

3G. Gudmundsson 44I. Gruev 4E. Ampadu 18A. Stach 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 9D. Calvert-Lewin

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 12C. Bradley

17C. Jones 38R. Gravenberch

18C. Gakpo 7F. Wirtz 8D. Szoboszlai

22H. Ekitiké

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Liverpool Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds-1.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Liverpool+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.57points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-2
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.14

Liverpool · Away 1.29points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-4
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.71

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Leeds	Liverpool
Chelsea	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 A
Manchester City	L 2–3 A	L 0–3 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Nottingham Forest	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 H
West Ham	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
Burnley	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 H	W 4–2 H
Newcastle	D 0–0 H	W 3–2 A
Arsenal	L 0–5 A	W 1–0 H
Everton	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Points	11 of 30 · 1.10 per game	21 of 30 · 2.10 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Leeds wins1 draws4 Liverpool wins

Goals per game1.17 – 3.50 Over 2.583% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

17 Apr 2023Leeds1–6Liverpool
29 Oct 2022Liverpool1–2Leeds
23 Feb 2022Liverpool6–0Leeds
12 Sep 2021Leeds0–3Liverpool
19 Apr 2021Leeds1–1Liverpool
12 Sep 2020Liverpool4–3Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.14	1.50
Conceded per game	1.86	1.50
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.93
Over 1.5	79%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	64%	56%
Over 3.5	43%	21%
Both teams scored	57%	57%	57%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	36%	14%
Games	14	14

	Leeds	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.20
Conceded per game	2.00	1.70
Match goals	3.50	2.90	2.93
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	90%	70%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.23	5.29
Corners conceded	3.46	5.14
Match total	7.69	10.43	9.98
Over 8.5	46% 6/13	79% 11/14
Over 9.5	31% 4/13	50% 7/14
Over 10.5	15% 2/13	43% 6/14
Cards
Cards	1.64	1.86
Opponent cards	1.64	1.93
Match total	3.28	3.79	3.79
Over 3.5	36% 5/14	57% 8/14
Over 4.5	29% 4/14	36% 5/14

	Leeds	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	6.30
Corners conceded	3.67	4.30
Match total	7.89	10.60	9.98
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.30
Opponent cards	1.90	2.00
Match total	3.70	3.30	3.79
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 196 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.66

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+34%league 40%

Fouls21.0league 22.0

Penalties0.28league 0.20

Home wins35%league 50%

Leeds11 with this referee

Record4-3-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 0.9 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

W20 Sep 25A · Wolves3–11
L28 May 23H · Tottenham1–43
L23 Oct 22H · Fulham2–31
L11 May 22H · Chelsea0–32
D2 Apr 22H · Southampton1–11

Liverpool28 with this referee

Record13-12-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against5 · 0 Reds1

L4 Oct 25A · Chelsea1–22
W15 Aug 25H · Bournemouth4–21
D11 May 25H · Arsenal2–21
W23 Feb 25A · Manchester City2–00
W29 Dec 24A · West Ham5–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.