Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Leeds were clear favourites.
Leeds were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Leeds. Leeds had 4.8 days of rest, Wolves 7.8 and had to travel 140 km.
Away travel140 kmRest days4.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Leeds62%
Draw22%
Wolves17%
Leeds57%
Draw24%
Wolves19%
Leeds62%
Draw21%
Wolves16%
Leeds54%
Draw24%
Wolves22%
Leeds61%
Draw22%
Wolves17%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeFarai Hallam
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 36
Team strength
Leeds
Wolves
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
69
AttackIn forecast
41
77
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsWolves
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
66%
Scored inContext
50%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.56
ShotsContext
9.34
3.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.35
31%
On target shareContext
35%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.03
66%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.25
Shots allowedContext
13.97
4.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.84
3.87
BlocksContext
4.52
2.76
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
65%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
398
PassesContext
374
317
Accurate passesContext
300
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.53
FoulsContext
13.00
11.31
Fouls sufferedContext
10.97
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.19
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
-0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
50%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.30
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
29%
On target shareContext
34%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
65%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.20
BlocksContext
4.38
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
68%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
386
PassesContext
362
305
Accurate passesContext
290
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.80
FoulsContext
10.50
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Wolves
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel140 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Wolves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Apr | 7.8Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 140 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 363 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
5P. Struijk
15J. Bijol
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
11B. Aaronson
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Wolves
Confirmed XI
25D. Bentley(G)
37L. Krejčí
24Toti Gomes
4S. Bueno
3Hugo Bueno
8João Gomes
7André
38J. Tchatchoua
47A. Gomes
27J. Bellegarde
9A. Armstrong
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Wolves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Wolves+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.44points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-5
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.25
Wolves · Away
0.31points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-5-11
- Scored
- 0.44
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Brentford | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AW 4–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Sunderland | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–4 HL 0–5 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Fulham | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Newcastle | L 3–4 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Liverpool | D 0–0 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Brighton | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| West Ham | W 2–1 H | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Tottenham | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 33 of 93 · 1.06 per game | 17 of 93 · 0.55 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Leeds wins1 draws2 Wolves wins
Goals per game1.86 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 20 Sep 2025Wolves1–3Leeds
- 18 Mar 2023Wolves2–4Leeds
- 6 Aug 2022Leeds2–1Wolves
- 18 Mar 2022Wolves2–3Leeds
- 23 Oct 2021Leeds1–1Wolves
- 19 Feb 2021Wolves1–0Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.56 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 47% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 44% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 34% | 50% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Leeds | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.60 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.34 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.77 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 9.47 | 9.51 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 19/30 | 69% 20/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 11/30 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.66 | 2.28 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.81 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 3.47 | 3.91 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 14/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 11/32 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Leeds | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 8.66 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Farai Hallam 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 3.76
Red cards0.03league 0.13
Cards 5+31%league 39%
Fouls22.6league 21.5
Penalties0.11league 0.22
Home wins33%league 42%
Leeds1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Mar 25H · West Brom1–10
Wolves1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Jan 26A · Manchester City0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds32 games · scored 39 · conceded 49
6
4
0-15
4
7
16-30
11
5
31-45
5
9
46-60
7
10
61-75
6
14
76-90
Wolves32 games · scored 24 · conceded 58
2
7
0-15
2
7
16-30
7
14
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
14
61-75
7
12
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
