Liverpool vs Brentford – 24 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 38 Sun, May 24 · 16:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 5th · 59 pts · 37 played WWLDL

1–1Full time

Brentford 9th · 52 pts · 37 played DLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brentford. Liverpool had 8.8 days of rest, Brentford 7 and had to travel 280 km.

Away travel280 kmRest days8.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Liverpool52%

Draw22%

Brentford25%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.38

Liverpool53%

Draw25%

Brentford22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Liverpool52%

Draw22%

Brentford25%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.38

Liverpool44%

Draw24%

Brentford33%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.54

Liverpool51%

Draw24%

Brentford26%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.28

Over 2.5 66% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeDarren England

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 121

Team strength

Liverpool

Brentford

83 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

85 AttackIn forecast 73

84 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Brentford

1.68 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.46

1.41 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

89% Scored inContext 68%

27% Clean sheetsContext 27%

15.24 ShotsContext 10.65

4.64 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.92

30% On target shareContext 37%

9.89 Shots in the boxContext 8.09

65% Box shareContext 72%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.42 OffsidesContext 2.07

11.46 Shots allowedContext 13.00

4.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.31

3.37 BlocksContext 4.49

2.91 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.12

66% Save rateContext 69%

59% PossessionIn forecast 48%

532 PassesContext 397

456 Accurate passesContext 314

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.97 FoulsContext 10.65

10.62 Fouls sufferedContext 9.22

1.49 Yellow cardsContext 1.78

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 37 and 37 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.40 ShotsContext 11.10

5.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

36% On target shareContext 33%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

62% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.00 Shots allowedContext 14.20

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.30 BlocksContext 4.88

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

65% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

460 PassesContext 418

383 Accurate passesContext 330

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.60 FoulsContext 9.20

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest8.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km252 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel280 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.8Premier League 2025-2026, 15 May	7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	280 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	252 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	91	90.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

26A. Robertson 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 17C. Jones

10A. Mac Allister 38R. Gravenberch

73R. Ngumoha 8D. Szoboszlai 11Mohamed Salah

18C. Gakpo

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 4S. van den Berg 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 6J. Henderson

7K. Schade 8M. Jensen 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brentford+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 1.94points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 10-5-3
Scored: 1.83
Conceded: 1.06

Brentford · Away 1.11points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-10
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Brentford
Aston Villa	L 2–4 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Chelsea	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Manchester United	L 2–3 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A
Everton	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 HW 4–2 A
Fulham	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Brighton	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Tottenham	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Wolves	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A
West Ham	W 5–2 HW 2–0 A	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A
Nottingham Forest	W 1–0 AL 0–3 H	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Sunderland	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Manchester City	L 1–2 HL 0–3 A	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
Newcastle	W 4–1 HW 3–2 A	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H
Bournemouth	L 2–3 AW 4–2 H	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H
Burnley	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H
Arsenal	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Leeds	D 0–0 HD 3–3 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Points	59 of 108 · 1.64 per game	49 of 108 · 1.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

6 Liverpool wins1 draws2 Brentford wins

Goals per game2.33 – 1.11 Over 2.567% Both scored44% Clean sheets56% · 0%

25 Oct 2025Brentford3–2Liverpool
18 Jan 2025Brentford0–2Liverpool
25 Aug 2024Liverpool2–0Brentford
17 Feb 2024Brentford1–4Liverpool
12 Nov 2023Liverpool3–0Brentford
6 May 2023Liverpool1–0Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.68	1.46
Conceded per game	1.41	1.38
Match goals	3.08	2.84	3.41
Over 1.5	84%	81%
Over 2.5	62%	54%	66%
Over 3.5	30%	38%
Both teams scored	68%	51%	65%
Clean sheets	27%	27%
Failed to score	11%	32%
Games	37	37

	Liverpool	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	1.40
Match goals	3.70	2.80	3.41
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	66%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	90%	50%	65%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	6.06	5.00
Corners conceded	4.50	5.19
Match total	10.56	10.19	10.08
Over 8.5	75% 27/36	69% 25/36
Over 9.5	56% 20/36	64% 23/36
Over 10.5	47% 17/36	56% 20/36
Cards
Cards	1.51	1.81
Opponent cards	2.16	1.95
Match total	3.67	3.76	3.91
Over 3.5	51% 19/37	57% 21/37
Over 4.5	27% 10/37	38% 14/37

	Liverpool	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	4.60
Corners conceded	3.80	5.20
Match total	9.40	9.80	10.08
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.30
Opponent cards	1.90	2.50
Match total	3.40	3.80	3.91
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Darren England 121 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.26league 3.79

Red cards0.12league 0.12

Cards 5+42%league 38%

Fouls22.3league 21.6

Penalties0.26league 0.21

Home wins44%league 43%

Liverpool9 with this referee

Record3-3-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L3 May 26A · Manchester United2–32
L21 Mar 26A · Brighton1–25
W30 Nov 25A · West Ham2–00
W20 Sep 25H · Everton2–12
D25 May 25H · Crystal Palace1–13

Brentford13 with this referee

Record6-0-7 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

L5 Oct 25H · Manchester City0–13
W1 May 25A · Nottingham Forest2–05
W15 Feb 25A · West Ham1–01
L27 Apr 24A · Everton0–12
L20 Feb 24A · Manchester City0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.