Liverpool vs Brighton – 13 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 10th · 23 pts · 15 played LLWDD

2–0Full time

Brighton 8th · 23 pts · 15 played DWWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 76). Liverpool had 6.9 days of rest, Brighton 6 and had to travel 345 km.

Away travel345 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 3

Liverpool56%

Draw23%

Brighton21%

Expected goals 1.94 – 1.12

Liverpool54%

Draw25%

Brighton21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Liverpool56%

Draw23%

Brighton21%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.12

Liverpool48%

Draw25%

Brighton27%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.25

Liverpool54%

Draw25%

Brighton21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Over 2.5 59% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 133

Team strength

Liverpool

Brighton

87 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

85 AttackIn forecast 87

84 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Brighton

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

87% Scored inContext 87%

27% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.47 ShotsContext 13.47

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

28% On target shareContext 36%

10.13 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

65% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.42 OffsidesContext 2.64

11.13 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.69 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.14 BlocksContext 2.79

2.77 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.73

59% Save rateContext 68%

61% PossessionIn forecast 52%

531 PassesContext 454

455 Accurate passesContext 381

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.67 FoulsContext 11.87

10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 10.27

1.93 Yellow cardsContext 2.47

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.40 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.50 ShotsContext 14.90

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

32% On target shareContext 34%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

62% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 13%

3.29 OffsidesContext 2.38

10.90 Shots allowedContext 12.00

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.80 BlocksContext 3.33

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

61% Save rateContext 73%

58% PossessionIn forecast 54%

517 PassesContext 490

447 Accurate passesContext 416

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.96

12.00 FoulsContext 11.10

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km780 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel345 km487 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec	6Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	345 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	780 km	487 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 2J. Gomez

17C. Jones 38R. Gravenberch

7F. Wirtz 10A. Mac Allister 8D. Szoboszlai

22H. Ekitiké

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

13J. Hinshelwood 17C. Baleba

25D. Gómez 8B. Gruda 11Y. Minteh

10G. Rutter

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool-0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Brighton+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 1.86points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-2
Scored: 1.57
Conceded: 1.29

Brighton · Away 1.14points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-3
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 1.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Brighton
Leeds	D 3–3 A	W 3–0 H
West Ham	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–3 H	W 2–0 A
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 H
Aston Villa	W 2–0 H	L 3–4 H
Brentford	L 2–3 A	W 2–1 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 H	L 2–4 A
Chelsea	L 1–2 A	W 3–1 A
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 A
Everton	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Newcastle	W 3–2 A	W 2–1 H
Bournemouth	W 4–2 H	L 1–2 A
Points	16 of 36 · 1.33 per game	20 of 36 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Liverpool wins4 draws3 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.70 Over 2.570% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 20%

19 May 2025Brighton3–2Liverpool
2 Nov 2024Liverpool2–1Brighton
31 Mar 2024Liverpool2–1Brighton
8 Oct 2023Brighton2–2Liverpool
14 Jan 2023Brighton3–0Liverpool
1 Oct 2022Liverpool3–3Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.67
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	3.20	3.07	3.06
Over 1.5	87%	93%
Over 2.5	67%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	27%	27%
Both teams scored	60%	73%	58%
Clean sheets	27%	20%
Failed to score	13%	13%
Games	15	15

	Liverpool	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.90
Conceded per game	1.90	1.30
Match goals	3.20	3.20	3.06
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	5.33
Corners conceded	5.13	4.60
Match total	10.33	9.93	10.01
Over 8.5	80% 12/15	67% 10/15
Over 9.5	47% 7/15	67% 10/15
Over 10.5	40% 6/15	60% 9/15
Cards
Cards	1.93	2.47
Opponent cards	2.00	2.13
Match total	3.93	4.60	3.79
Over 3.5	60% 9/15	73% 11/15
Over 4.5	40% 6/15	47% 7/15

	Liverpool	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	6.50
Corners conceded	4.80	4.80
Match total	9.90	11.30	10.01
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.40
Opponent cards	2.20	1.70
Match total	4.00	4.10	3.79
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 133 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.66

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+38%league 40%

Fouls22.7league 22.0

Penalties0.22league 0.21

Home wins42%league 49%

Liverpool12 with this referee

Record10-1-1 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

W21 Apr 24A · Fulham3–10
W28 Feb 24H · Southampton3–00
W21 Oct 23H · Everton2–01
W15 May 23A · Leicester3–01
W17 Apr 23A · Leeds6–11

Brighton13 with this referee

Record4-5-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 5

W18 Oct 25H · Newcastle2–10
D4 May 25H · Newcastle1–11
D30 Dec 24A · Aston Villa2–23
W24 Aug 24H · Manchester United2–11
L19 May 24H · Manchester United0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.