Liverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Liverpool
6th · 39 pts · 24 played
DDDLW
1–2Full time
Manchester City
2nd · 47 pts · 24 played
DDLWD
Our take
Liverpool were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Liverpool. Liverpool had 7.9 days of rest, Manchester City 7 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Liverpool52%
Draw23%
Manchester City25%
Liverpool44%
Draw27%
Manchester City30%
Liverpool51%
Draw24%
Manchester City26%
Liverpool43%
Draw25%
Manchester City32%
Liverpool50%
Draw25%
Manchester City25%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
No weather data yet
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 139
Team strength
LiverpoolManchester City
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
84
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
85
AttackIn forecast
92
84
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LiverpoolManchester City
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.04
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.96
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
83%
Scored inContext
83%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
15.50
ShotsContext
14.13
4.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
29%
On target shareContext
35%
9.92
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
64%
Box shareContext
75%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.55
OffsidesContext
1.59
10.54
Shots allowedContext
9.46
3.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.42
3.22
BlocksContext
2.91
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.46
64%
Save rateContext
72%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
554
PassesContext
576
478
Accurate passesContext
508
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.09
9.33
FoulsContext
9.96
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.40
ShotsContext
14.60
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
29%
On target shareContext
32%
11.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
63%
Box shareContext
75%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.33
8.60
Shots allowedContext
8.40
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.40
BlocksContext
2.38
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
74%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
584
PassesContext
624
513
Accurate passesContext
557
88%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.13
Team ratingContext
7.03
8.50
FoulsContext
9.60
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
0.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Liverpool
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel50 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Liverpool |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
8D. Szoboszlai
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
7F. Wirtz
11Mohamed Salah
22H. Ekitiké
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
21R. Aït-Nouri
15A. Guéhi
45A. Khusanov
27M. Nunes
33N. O'Reilly
16Rodri
20Bernardo Silva
7O. Marmoush
9E. Haaland
42A. Semenyo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Liverpool
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Liverpool+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester City-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Liverpool · Home
2.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Manchester City · Away
1.50points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-4
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | W 4–1 HW 3–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Bournemouth | L 2–3 AW 4–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Burnley | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| Arsenal | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fulham | D 2–2 A | W 5–4 A |
| Leeds | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| Wolves | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Brighton | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| West Ham | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Aston Villa | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Brentford | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Everton | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 39 of 69 · 1.70 per game | 44 of 69 · 1.91 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Liverpool wins4 draws3 Manchester City wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.70
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 9 Nov 2025Manchester City3–0Liverpool
- 23 Feb 2025Manchester City0–2Liverpool
- 1 Dec 2024Liverpool2–0Manchester City
- 10 Mar 2024Liverpool1–1Manchester City
- 25 Nov 2023Manchester City1–1Liverpool
- 1 Apr 2023Manchester City4–1Liverpool
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Liverpool | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 2.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 0.96 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 58% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 46% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Liverpool | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Liverpool | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.87 | 5.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.61 | 3.91 | |
| Match total | 10.48 | 9.43 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 18/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 13/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 10/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 7/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Liverpool | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.67 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 12.89 | 8.90 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 9/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 139 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.71
Red cards0.10league 0.11
Cards 5+38%league 37%
Fouls22.6league 21.3
Penalties0.21league 0.21
Home wins41%league 44%
Liverpool14 with this referee
Record11-2-1
Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D4 Jan 26A · Fulham2–21
- W13 Dec 25H · Brighton2–01
- W21 Apr 24A · Fulham3–10
- W28 Feb 24H · Southampton3–00
- W21 Oct 23H · Everton2–01
Manchester City10 with this referee
Record8-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.1
Pens for · against3 · 2
- W2 Dec 25A · Fulham5–41
- W22 Apr 25H · Aston Villa2–14
- W4 May 24H · Wolves5–10
- W4 Nov 23H · Bournemouth6–10
- L30 Sep 23A · Wolves1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Liverpool24 games · scored 39 · conceded 33
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
10
5
31-45
9
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
14
10
76-90
Manchester City24 games · scored 49 · conceded 23
7
0-15
5
2
16-30
15
4
31-45
6
5
46-60
10
7
61-75
6
5
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 24 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
