Liverpool vs Manchester United – 19 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 19 · 16:30 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 3rd · 15 pts · 7 played WWWLL

1–2Full time

Manchester United 12th · 10 pts · 7 played WLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were clear favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 70). Liverpool had 15 days of rest, Manchester United 15.1 and had to travel 50 km.

Away travel50 kmRest days15 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Liverpool68%

Draw18%

Manchester United13%

Expected goals 2.39 – 0.98

Liverpool65%

Draw21%

Manchester United14%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.86

Liverpool68%

Draw19%

Manchester United13%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.95

Liverpool61%

Draw21%

Manchester United18%

Expected goals 2.13 – 1.10

Liverpool66%

Draw20%

Manchester United14%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.89

Over 2.5 65% Both score 57% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 186

Team strength

Liverpool

Manchester United

91 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

86 AttackIn forecast 72

83 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Manchester United

1.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 2.01

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.72

100% Scored inContext 71%

29% Clean sheetsContext 14%

14.71 ShotsContext 15.71

4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.86

29% On target shareContext 31%

9.43 Shots in the boxContext 10.71

64% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 8%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.57

10.14 Shots allowedContext 9.14

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.33 BlocksContext 2.33

2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

59% Save rateContext 59%

62% PossessionIn forecast 53%

526 PassesContext 451

447 Accurate passesContext 367

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.85

9.29 FoulsContext 10.00

10.71 Fouls sufferedContext 12.57

2.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.71

90% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.30 ShotsContext 15.60

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

28% On target shareContext 33%

10.70 Shots in the boxContext 11.33

69% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 7%

1.22 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.70 Shots allowedContext 8.40

3.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

2.78 BlocksContext 2.56

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

62% Save rateContext 61%

63% PossessionIn forecast 57%

541 PassesContext 472

465 Accurate passesContext 389

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.93

9.30 FoulsContext 10.40

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest15.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel50 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Oct	15.1Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	50 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25G. Mamardashvili(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 12C. Bradley

10A. Mac Allister 38R. Gravenberch

18C. Gakpo 8D. Szoboszlai 11Mohamed Salah

9A. Isak

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 5J. Maguire 4M. de Ligt

2Diogo Dalot 8Bruno Fernandes 18Casemiro 16A. Diallo

7Mason Mount 19B. Mbeumo

10Matheus Cunha

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+0.4 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Manchester United+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.00

Manchester United · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Manchester United
Chelsea	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Burnley	W 1–0 A	W 3–2 H
Arsenal	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Liverpool wins3 draws2 Manchester United wins

Goals per game3.10 – 1.20 Over 2.590% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 10%

5 Jan 2025Liverpool2–2Manchester United
1 Sep 2024Manchester United0–3Liverpool
7 Apr 2024Manchester United2–2Liverpool
17 Mar 2024Manchester United4–3Liverpool
17 Dec 2023Liverpool0–0Manchester United
5 Mar 2023Liverpool7–0Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.86	1.29
Conceded per game	1.29	1.57
Match goals	3.14	2.86	3.37
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	57%	65%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	57%	57%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Failed to score	0%	29%
Games	7	7

	Liverpool	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.86	1.29
Conceded per game	1.29	1.57
Match goals	3.14	2.86	3.37
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	57%	65%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	57%	57%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Failed to score	0%	29%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.14	4.14
Corners conceded	5.14	4.00
Match total	10.28	8.14	9.80
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	2.14	1.14
Opponent cards	1.86	3.14
Match total	4.00	4.28	3.78
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7

	Liverpool	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	4.00
Corners conceded	5.00	4.20
Match total	10.56	8.20	9.80
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.00
Opponent cards	2.10	2.90
Match total	4.30	4.90	3.78
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 186 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.65

Red cards0.14league 0.13

Cards 5+34%league 41%

Fouls22.5league 21.9

Penalties0.28league 0.21

Home wins42%league 49%

Liverpool20 with this referee

Record7-7-6 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against8 · 1 Reds1

W14 Sep 25A · Burnley1–02
D12 Feb 25A · Everton2–24
D5 Jan 25H · Manchester United2–22
L14 Sep 24H · Nottingham Forest0–14
D10 Mar 24H · Manchester City1–10

Manchester United15 with this referee

Record5-4-6 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

L13 Apr 25A · Newcastle1–42
D5 Jan 25A · Liverpool2–24
L24 Feb 24H · Fulham1–22
D17 Dec 23A · Liverpool0–06
W21 Oct 23A · Sheffield Utd2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.