Liverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were clear favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 62). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Liverpool. Liverpool had 11.8 days of rest, Tottenham 9.9 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days11.8 · 9.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Liverpool76%
Draw14%
Tottenham10%
Liverpool64%
Draw21%
Tottenham15%
Liverpool74%
Draw15%
Tottenham11%
Liverpool69%
Draw17%
Tottenham14%
Liverpool74%
Draw16%
Tottenham10%
Over 2.5 76%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 157
Team strength
Liverpool
Tottenham
86
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
84
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
85
AttackIn forecast
56
84
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LiverpoolTottenham
1.66
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.34
1.34
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
86%
Scored inContext
83%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
15.76
ShotsContext
11.00
4.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.72
29%
On target shareContext
34%
10.24
Shots in the boxContext
7.82
65%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.83
10.83
Shots allowedContext
12.86
3.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.28
3.44
BlocksContext
3.57
2.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.92
66%
Save rateContext
65%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
541
PassesContext
412
465
Accurate passesContext
335
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.69
FoulsContext
11.55
10.55
Fouls sufferedContext
9.72
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
2.59
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
18.00
ShotsContext
12.60
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
37%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
68%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.13
11.50
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.56
BlocksContext
4.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
71%
Save rateContext
52%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
475
PassesContext
419
402
Accurate passesContext
346
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.70
FoulsContext
12.90
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Liverpool
Rest11.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km216 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tottenham
Rest9.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Liverpool |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Mar | 9.9Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 216 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
26A. Robertson
4V. van Dijk
2J. Gomez
8D. Szoboszlai
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
73R. Ngumoha
7F. Wirtz
30J. Frimpong
18C. Gakpo
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
24D. Spence
3R. Drăgușin
4K. Danso
23Pedro Porro
11M. Tel
29P. Sarr
14A. Gray
38Souza
19D. Solanke
9Richarlison
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Liverpool
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Tottenham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.15 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Liverpool+1.9 pp
- Draw-1.0 pp
- Tottenham-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Liverpool · Home
1.93points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-3
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.14
Tottenham · Away
1.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Liverpool | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| West Ham | W 5–2 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Manchester City | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Newcastle | W 4–1 HW 3–2 A | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Bournemouth | L 2–3 AW 4–2 H | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Burnley | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Arsenal | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 1–4 HL 1–4 A |
| Fulham | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Leeds | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Brighton | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Aston Villa | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Brentford | L 2–3 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Everton | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 45 of 84 · 1.61 per game | 29 of 84 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
7 Liverpool wins2 draws1 Tottenham wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.70
Over 2.590%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Dec 2025Tottenham1–2Liverpool
- 27 Apr 2025Liverpool5–1Tottenham
- 22 Dec 2024Tottenham3–6Liverpool
- 5 May 2024Liverpool4–2Tottenham
- 30 Sep 2023Tottenham2–1Liverpool
- 30 Apr 2023Liverpool4–3Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.66 | 1.34 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.34 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.93 | 3.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 69% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 62% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 17% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Liverpool | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.21 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.54 | 4.93 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 10.26 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 23/28 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 16/28 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 13/28 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.55 | 2.72 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.65 | 4.55 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 14/29 | 69% 20/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 8/29 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.90 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.80 | 8.25 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.10 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 157 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.77
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls21.9league 21.5
Penalties0.23league 0.21
Home wins39%league 42%
Liverpool21 with this referee
Record12-4-5
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W11 Feb 26A · Sunderland1–00
- D1 Jan 26H · Leeds0–00
- L9 Nov 25A · Manchester City0–34
- L27 Sep 25A · Crystal Palace1–23
- W31 Aug 25H · Arsenal1–02
Tottenham12 with this referee
Record5-4-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D20 Sep 25A · Brighton2–22
- L11 May 25H · Crystal Palace0–21
- D29 Dec 24H · Wolves2–21
- W29 Sep 24A · Manchester United3–03
- D19 Aug 24A · Leicester1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Liverpool29 games · scored 48 · conceded 39
3
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
11
5
31-45
9
6
46-60
6
7
61-75
17
14
76-90
Tottenham29 games · scored 39 · conceded 46
3
7
0-15
4
2
16-30
9
17
31-45
7
5
46-60
6
4
61-75
10
11
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
9
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
